Mellman Group Poll: Rep. Bush, Challenger Bell in Dead Heat

A new poll is showing "Squad" member Democrat Rep. Cori Bush and her primary challenger, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, in a statistical dead heat ahead of the Aug. 6 primary in Missouri.

The Mellman Group poll, obtained by Politico, shows that Bell is ahead of Bush by one percentage point, 43% to 42%, in a comeback from his double-digit deficit in January.

The polling is based on a survey of 400 voters in Missouri's 1st Congressional District from June 18-22, carrying a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

The poll showed that Bush's performance ratings are dropping, while Bell's are rising, and that 11% of the voters remain undecided and 4% support other candidates.

In January, Bush led the four-candidate race, which also includes former state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal and Ron Harshaw, by 16 percentage points.

However, Bell's margins grew across all major demographics according to the poll, which also found that he is ahead by 10 points, 49%-39% over Bush among voters who cast ballots in three of the most recent primaries.

Bell's image advantage was also higher than Bush's, with 61% of those polled giving him positive ratings for the job he is doing as prosecuting attorney and 27% giving him negative marks. Bush netted 60% favorable ratings and 31% unfavorable.

The new numbers on Bush come as one of her fellow Squad members, Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., lost his primary bid Tuesday against George Latimer, a pro-Israel centrist, ousting one of the most outspoken critics of Israel in Congress.

Latimer has served as Westchester County executive since 2018 and is a former state legislator.

In March, Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI), an advocacy group pushing for pro-Israel policies, said it was looking to unseat Squad members Bush, Bowman, and Rep. Summer Lee, D-Pa., because of their stances against Israel.

• More than 20 Progressive Groups Form a Coalition to Counter Pro-Israel Groups before the Election
• Cori Bush Faces Tough Primary Over Israel Stance