President Joe Biden has emerged as the front-runner in hypothetical matchups within the pivotal swing state of Michigan, according to a new poll.
In a survey conducted by Susquehanna Polling & Research shared with The Hill, Biden holds a 3-point lead over former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the top two GOP candidates. However, with a margin of error at 3.7 percent, the race is effectively a tie.
In 2016, Michigan played a pivotal role in then-candidate Trump's victory, marking a critical turning point in the election. However, four years later, it swung in favor of Biden, showcasing the state's significance in securing presidential victories for both candidates.
According to Susquehanna Polling & Research President Jim Lee, Biden's 3-point lead over Trump in Michigan is consistent with the margin by which Biden won the state in the 2020 election. This fact suggests that Michigan's political landscape has maintained stability in its preferences since the last presidential election, The Hill reported.
One concern highlighted by Lee is Biden's performance among Democrats. He currently receives support from 87 percent of Democrats in Michigan, trailing behind Trump's 90 percent among Republicans. This discrepancy contrasts exit polls from the 2020 election, which indicated that Biden garnered 97 percent of Democratic support in Michigan, compared to Trump's 94 percent of Republican support.
Biden's support among independents and unaffiliated voters also emerges as a factor in his lead over Trump in Michigan. The poll reveals that Biden holds a 7-point advantage, with 44 percent of these crucial voter demographics favoring him, compared to Trump's 37 percent. These independent and unaffiliated voters previously played a pivotal role in securing Biden's victory in the state.
While Biden's lead in Michigan appears comfortable, Lee points out that his margins in other swing states like Arizona and Georgia are closer, but still within the poll's margin of error.
The poll unveils a commanding lead for Trump among registered Republicans in Michigan, emphasizing his substantial influence within the party's base. Trump enjoys robust support within this demographic, with 65 percent backing him. DeSantis secures second place with 18 percent support.
The significance of Michigan in the GOP nominating process cannot be overstated. It stands as one of the early voting states, wielding considerable influence in shaping the trajectory of the Republican nomination.
Political consultant and Susquehanna strategic partner Garrett Biggs has assessed the political landscape. He sees Trump as a formidable contender for the Republican nomination, suggesting his candidacy is "almost a slam dunk." However, Biggs recognizes the need for Trump to broaden his coalition, particularly to appeal to independent voters. Winning this crucial demographic will be essential if Trump aims to narrow the gap with Biden, who currently enjoys a lead among independents.
"Campaigns are about message and repetition, and the message will have to aim more to independent moderate voters to win swing states like Michigan," Biggs said.
Susquehanna surveyed 700 registered voters between Sept. 7-12, including 219 Republicans intending to participate in Michigan's presidential electoral process. The sample's margin of error was 3.7 percentage points.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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