Military expert Robert Pape argues that the glimmer of a possible peace deal this weekend was illusory — and that a ceasefire is unlikely to hold because the conflict is driven by a fundamentally "zero-sum" dynamic rather than negotiable differences.
Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago known for his work on coercive diplomacy, air power, and suicide terrorism, has long studied how conflicts escalate when core strategic interests are perceived as indivisible. His analysis and predictions since the war began on February 28 have been highly accurate.
In his recent analysis published on Substack, Pape contends that what appears to be fragile diplomacy is in fact something deeper and more intractable, writing that "this is not a story about fragile diplomacy or poor sequencing" but rather one rooted in structural conflict.
According to Pape, the brief ceasefire between Israel, Hezbollah, and broader regional actors initially suggested a potential shift toward stabilization, as signals from Iran and early tanker traffic hinted at de-escalation.
However, that moment quickly unraveled when the United States maintained its naval pressure on Iran, prompting Tehran to reassert control over the Strait of Hormuz and escalate militarily.
Pape describes this rapid reversal as evidence that "in a matter of a day, the system snapped back to escalation," underscoring how deeply embedded the incentives for conflict have become.
At the heart of his argument is the claim that the conflict revolves around issues that cannot be compromised without one side accepting a strategic defeat.
He identifies Iran’s nuclear capability as one such issue, arguing that "Iran either retains a nuclear capability on the threshold of weapons, or it does not," leaving no stable middle ground.
He suggests if the current Iranian leadership were to agree to such a deal, they would likely face internal revolt.
For the United States, allowing Iran to maintain the potential for nuclear capability would shift the regional balance of power, while for Iran, relinquishing it would expose the regime to vulnerability.
Because of this, Pape argues, "any ceasefire that leaves this issue unresolved is therefore structurally unstable," serving only as a temporary pause rather than a solution.
He extends the same logic to control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint that cannot simultaneously be governed by Iran and remain an open international passage.
In his words, "either Hormuz operates as an open international passage, or it is governed by Iran," reinforcing the idea that both sides are locked in a direct contest over power.
This structural incompatibility, Pape argues, creates a situation where both sides see escalation as preferable to concession.
"Zero-sum conflicts do not automatically escalate," he writes, "they escalate when both sides reveal that losing is worse than fighting," a threshold he believes has already been crossed.
Recent actions by both the United States and Iran, including expanded military operations and enforcement measures, are interpreted by Pape as clear signals of that preference.
"These actions are not reluctant or reactive," he notes, but rather deliberate indications that each side is willing to bear the costs of continued escalation.
As a result, ceasefires lose their traditional role as pathways to peace and instead become temporary interruptions in an ongoing cycle of confrontation.
Pape describes the recent pattern as "incremental escalation, brief pauses, renewed escalation," which he sees as the natural rhythm of a zero-sum conflict.
He concludes that external pressures for stability, including diplomatic efforts and market concerns, are unlikely to overcome the underlying structural forces driving the conflict.
Ultimately, Pape warns that "this war is not stabilizing," but rather tightening over time, pointing toward continued escalation rather than lasting resolution.
President Donald Trump has issued several positive announcements about a potential deal. Still, the U.S. is preparing for the worst as the Pentagon continues to move thousands of U.S. troops to the region.
The Navy carrier USS George H.W. Bush is expected to arrive near the Gulf of Oman in the coming days. The carrier group includes 6,000 additional combat troops.
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