While Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are popular among Florida voters, the former president leads by 20 points in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, according to a new poll from Florida Atlantic University-Mainstreet PolCom Lab.
The poll found that Trump captured the support of 50% of Republican primary voters; DeSantis, governor of Florida, received 30%.
"The poll highlights Donald Trump's quite durable support," FAU political science professor Kevin Wagner said in the poll analysis. "He does especially well with white working-class voters, who have consistently formed a steadfast base for the former president. This persistent support continues to bolster Trump's strong and steady position within the party."
The survey also found that one in five Republicans views supporting a candidate other than Trump in the primaries as disloyal, creating a challenge for any contender in Florida.
On a bright note for DeSantis, the gap between him and Trump in Florida has narrowed by 7% since April, according to a PolCom Lab poll.
According to the poll, DeSantis would defeat President Joe Biden in a hypothetical matchup 49% to 36% among Floridians, larger than the 10-point lead Trump has over Biden.
On DeSantis' performance as governor, 54% of Florida residents say they "strongly" or "somewhat" approve.
"These poll results could be an important motivator for DeSantis to promote his bid for the Republican primary, as he may be a stronger candidate against the incumbent," FAU political science professor Dukhong Kim said. "The poll indicates that the margin held by Trump or DeSantis at this time is larger than the 3.3% vote difference observed in the 2020 presidential election, suggesting that Florida is shifting toward becoming a safe state for Republicans."
Trump and DeSantis lead a crowded Republican primary field, with other challengers gaining limited traction.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence each pulled 2% support. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy drew 2.5% and 3.6% support, respectively.
The poll found that Black and Hispanic voters are considerably more interested in minority GOP candidates.
The poll was conducted June 27 to July 1 and surveyed 933 Florida voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
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