Emerson Poll: Battleground States Remain Tight

The 2024 presidential election is at razor-thin margins in the battleground states, according to a new Emerson College/The Hill poll.

In the seven battleground states:

• Arizona: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
• Georgia: Trump 50%, Harris 49%
• Michigan: Harris 50%, Trump 48%
• Nevada: Harris 48%, Trump 48%
• North Carolina: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
• Pennsylvania: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
• Wisconsin: Trump 49%, Harris 49%

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have been divided by a gender gap, with men mainly voting for Trump and women voting for Harris.

In Pennsylvania, Trump leads Harris with men, 58% to 41%, while Harris leads Trump with women, 55% to 42%. In Wisconsin, Trump lead Harris with men, 55% to 43% while Harris leads Trump with women, 55% to 44%. In Georgia, Trump leads Harris with men, 58% to 42%, and Harris leads Trump with women, 55% to 43%.

Poll results from Senate elections:

• Arizona: Democrat Ruben Gallego 50%, Republican Kari Lake 45%
• Michigan: Democrat Elissa Slotkin 49%, Republican Mike Rogers 45%
• Nevada: Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen 50%, Republican Sam Brown 44%
• Pennsylvania: Democrat Sen. Bob Casey 47%, Republican David McCormick 47%
• Wisconsin: Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin 51%, Republican Eric Hovde 45%

The poll was conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 2.

The sample size for Arizona is 900, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll's margin of error of +/-3.2%. The sample size for Michigan is 790, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%. The sample size for North Carolina is 860 with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Nevada is 840, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Pennsylvania is 1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%. The sample size for Wisconsin is 800, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4% The sample size for Georgia is 800 with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%

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