U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Republican gubernatorial primary, according to a new poll from Cygnal.
The survey shows Blackburn capturing 58% of the vote, including 34% who say they would definitely support her and 24% who say they would probably support her.
That gives Blackburn a 51-point advantage over U.S. Rep. John Rose, R-Tenn., who polls at 7%, and a 54-point lead over state Rep. Monty Fritts, R-Kingston, at 4%.
The poll found 30% of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided, but Cygnal described the race as having “little room for meaningful movement” away from Blackburn’s current position.
Support for Blackburn varies across factions of the Republican electorate, with the survey showing her drawing stronger backing from voters aligned with President Donald Trump.
Among “Trump GOP” voters, Blackburn earns about 69% support, compared to roughly 49% among “Traditional GOP” voters, according to the polling memo.
The Cygnal poll also found that economic concerns dominate voter priorities in the primary.
Cost of living and inflation rank as the top issue at 24%, followed by immigration at 15% and jobs and the broader economy at 10%.
Additional findings in the survey point to policy positions that could shape the race.
The poll highlights strong support for Trump-backed prescription drug pricing efforts, with 80% of primary voters backing the approach and 71% saying state government should actively support it, while 60% say they would be less likely to support a gubernatorial candidate who opposed such measures.
Voters also expressed caution on emerging issues, with 43% expecting artificial intelligence to have a negative impact on Tennessee compared to 33% who view it positively, and 66% supporting increased regulation of AI companies.
On infrastructure, 43% support building data centers statewide, but support drops when projects are proposed locally, where opposition slightly outweighs support.
The Tennessee Star reported that a February poll conducted by Tennesseans for Student Success similarly showed Blackburn leading the primary field with 60.6% support, compared to 8.1% for Rose and 5.1% for Fritts, with just over 26% undecided.
A separate survey released by the Beacon Center of Tennessee earlier this year found Blackburn leading Rose by 47 points and Fritts by 49 points.
The Republican primary election for governor in Tennessee is scheduled for Aug. 6.
The Cygnal survey was conducted March 16 and 17 among 500 likely 2026 Republican primary voters in Tennessee with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38%.
Jim Mishler ✉
Jim Mishler, a seasoned reporter, anchor and news director, has decades of experience covering crime, politics and environmental issues.
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