Abortion Referendum May Not Help Dems Flip Florida

Despite an abortion referendum being on the ballot, Democrats continue to face an uphill climb to flip Florida from red to blue.

Florida Democrats have not won a federal race in the state since 2012. Gov. Ron DeSantis easily won re-election in 2022 and former President Donald Trump carried the state in 2016, 2020 and is expected to win again in 2024.

This November, voters in Florida will be weighing in on a referendum that enshrines the right to an abortion in the state constitution, overturning the six-week abortion ban DeSantis signed into law. Polls show the constitutional measure is popular, but Democrats told the Washington Post they don't think it will help them win elections.

Republicans maintain a voter registration advantage in the state and abortion groups working to get the referendum to pass are not weighing in on Florida's partisan races, the Post reported.

"You're going to see people across the political spectrum voting on this particular issue," Ashley Walker, general consultant to Florida Women's Freedom Coalition, a bipartisan group pushing for the amendment's passage, told the Post.

Florida will also be voting on whether to legalize recreational marijuana, another ballot initiative with liberal support.

In 2018, Floridians voted to restore voting rights for people with prior felony convictions, while electing DeSantis and Sen. Rick Scott.

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has used the abortion referendum to try and rally support for her Senate race against incumbent Scott, who previously served as two-term governor. He opposes the abortion referendum and supports Florida's six-week abortion ban.

But Mucarsel-Powell has little name recognition in the state and the race has been rated likely Republican by the Cook Political Report. A recent Florida Atlantic University poll had Scott up 45% to 43%, though other polls have him leading by eight and 17 points, respectively.

In a podcast with Puck News, Biden campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillion said "no" when asked if Florida was a battleground state, surprising many, since the Democrats have campaigned in the state and set up campaign offices. The Biden campaign later walked back her comments.

Recent polling has Trump up between four and six points, according to RealClearPolitics.