Sept 2020 National Survey Results
The results of our just completed national survey of 1,000 likely voters, indicates that tonight’s presidential debate is on its way to becoming the most watched presidential debate in history. This is a fitting prelude to one of the most important presidential elections in history at a time of historic challenges.
The survey was conducted online between Sept. 23 and 27.
Among all voters, 85%, say that they are likely to watch the first debate between President Trump and former Vice President Biden.
Almost half, 44%, say that they will definitely watch the debate.
Another one in four voters, 25%, say that they are very likely to watch, and another 16% say that they are somewhat likely to watch. When you combine those most involved voters who will definitely watch and very likely to watch, it seems that voters who approve of President Trump, 75%, and Republicans, 74%, are most likely to watch.
This may be ironic because, just like last month, when we told the voters that if Joe Biden were to win the election, he would be 78 years old and 82 at the end of his term, and then asked how likely his running mate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., would be president by the end of Joe Biden’s 4 year term, two-thirds, 67%, said that it was likely.
Only 26% said not likely.
Every key voter segment in the poll said that it was likely Harris would be president within four years. Voters who approve of President Trump, 82%; Republicans, 80%; and conservatives, 78%; said that it was likely.
However, the majority of those who disapprove of President Trump, 53%; Democrats 55%; independents, 66%; and liberals, 61% said it was likely Harris would become president within four years.
Also, the majority of African Americans, 57%; Hispanics, 69%; and voters under 55, 70%; all think Harris will be president.
Hence, while the vast majority of voters will be watching tonight’s debate they will be thinking that if they vote for Biden, Harris will be the president.
The implications of Biden and Harris winning the election, and the likelihood that there will be one party Democratic control of the federal government with the Democrats keeping the U.S. House and taking control of the U.S. Senate, makes the voters more likely to vote for President Trump to be a check and balance on the Democratic-controlled Congress, 49% to 26%.
The prospect of one-party Democratic control rallies Republicans, 78% to 8%, and conservatives, 70% to 13% to be more likely to vote for President Trump.
However, it is also a winner among independents 42% to 24%, moderates 37% to 29%, Hispanics 48% to 29% and women 44% to 25%. American voters do not want one party control right now.
They want a check and balance.
They want President Trump to be that check on the Democratic Congress.
Also, significant numbers of the opposition’s base Democrats 27%, those who disapprove Trump 21%, liberals 38%, and African Americans 35% are more likely to vote to re-elect President Trump to stop one party Democratic rule and be a check and balance on them.
Six in 10 voters, 61%, agree that if Joe Biden and Sen. Harris were to win the election and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., were to control Congress, there would be "no one there to stop them."
Only 31% disagreed.
Voters who approve the president agree 83% to 12%, but so did 39% of those who disapprove of President Trump. Centrists voters agreed as well — independents 56% to 33% and moderates 50% to 37%.
The majority of voters, 52%, approve of President Trump’s decision to nominate a new justice to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court; just 42% disapproved.
The poll was begun prior to the selection of Judge Amy Coney Barrett, but it is clear the majority of voters support the president’s right to nominate a new justice.
Republicans, 90% to 8%, and conservatives, 79% to 16%, overwhelmingly support the president picking a new justice. Independents approved 47% to 43% and those who were undecided for Congress approved 42% to 35%.
Among other important findings were:
—Almost half the voters, 49%, approve the job President Trump is doing. That’s the highest job approval for the president’s since March. This includes 20% approval for the president among African Americans and 47% among Hispanics.
—Speaker Nancy Pelosi remains a net negative to the majority of voters: favorable 41% and unfavorable 51%. Among those who are undecided for Congress Pelosi is only 20% favorable and 54% unfavorable. Republicans for Congress need to run even harder at Nancy Pelosi on the issues. After all she is funding the Democratic majority’s campaigns to beat them.
—The generic ballot for Congress remains very close with 48% Democrat and 46% Republican.
—The majority of voters, 52%, want President Trump to continue to fight for change in Washington. Only 38% oppose change in Washington. Those who approve of the president want change 91% to 5%, and independents support the President fighting for change in Washington 48% to 39%. Most notably Hispanics support the president’s fight for change 51% to 40%.
—It’s little wonder that Joe Biden is trying to repudiate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., socialism. The majority of voters prefer free market capitalism, 60%, over big government socialism 18%. This is a monthly constant in our polls.
—The economy is clearly bouncing back from the pandemic shutdown. From a peak of 65% in June who said the economy was in recession with 30% who disagreed, today 55% say the economy is in recession and 39% disagree. Among all voters from an April bottom of 65% saying the economy was getting worse with only 29% saying better, to the current almost even split of 45% saying better to 49% saying worse, economic optimism is returning.
—The preference for smaller government is only 45% while larger government is at 40%.A record number of voters, 36%, are tuning into the president directly via Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.
With issues like these it is little wonder that tonight’s presidential debate will be the most watched in history as American voters prepare to make a historic choice for their own future.
The link to our poll results mya be found here!
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. During this time he has earned a reputation for helping some of America’s most successful corporations and winning some of the toughest elections in the nation. His political clients have included former Presidential candidates Steve Forbes and Fred Thompson, former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal and 22 current and former U.S. Senators and 21 current Republican members of Congress. In 2016, John worked as an advisor and pollster for Donald Trump from the primaries through Election Day. Their firm currently polls for the Trump Pence re-election campaign.
Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Jim has worked for over 70 members of Congress, 14 U.S. Senators, 10 governors, numerous mayors and scores of other elected officials. Read Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.
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