Last year’s election is well behind us, but voters are still in a bad mood.
It appears that all the 2022 election results did was kick the can of the reckoning for this foul mood down the road — into November 2024.
Usually after an election there is a sense of new hope and optimism.
Public opinion often rises after the electorate's decision.
Over some appreciable time, disappointment may follow; just as it did from 2020 into 2021. However, this year, post-election there is no hope.
There is no optimism — only a very, very bad mood.
Our most recent national poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between Jan. 19 to 24 of this year.
Two thirds, 63%, of all voters still say that the United States remains on the wrong track.
Only 30% say it’s headed in the right direction.
Much as they were all last year.
The majority of voters, 52%, say our economy is in recession.
However, only 30% say the economy is getting better, while 63% say the economy will get worse. Again, much as they were last year.
Only 44% of Democrats say the economy will get better and 47% say worse, while 63% of Independents and 79% of Republicans say the economy will get worse.
On the leading economic issue of inflation 79% of all voters say they have been personally negatively impacted.
Among them 40% say that they have been so severely negative impacted they are "struggling to keep up and afford basic necessities."
No significant change since we started asking the question back in June. Things are bad.
We had an election.
Things are still bad.
We’re not even kidding ourselves.
Ironically Republicans remain ahead of the Democrats in the generic ballot for Congress 47% to 42%, but, as we saw on Nov. 8, 2022, the distribution of a majority of the votes led to only a four seat Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Republicans win their party votes 94% to 3%, but win only 38% of independents to 35% for the Democrats. Democrats vote for their candidates 87% to 8%.
Expanding the House majority will mean winning more votes among independents, and registering and turning out more Republicans.
The Democrats are already working on registering and turning out more Democrats to win in 2024 — even if it means changing election rules.
Since September the Republicans have not done any serious damage to President Biden’s job rating. Biden’s disapproval peaked at 60% to only 39% approval back in August.
For three recent months Biden’s disapproval remained flat at 52%. This month Biden’s disapproval ticked up to 53% and his approval ticked down to 45%.
However, the very recent classified document scandal may be beginning to hurt President Biden’s job rating with the potential to break his partisan base.
When we asked, "Do you think it is a sign of corruption that while Hunter Biden was being paid millions of dollars by the Chinese and other foreign interests, his father, Joe Biden was charging his son $50,000 a month — more than half a million dollars a year — just to live at the family’s Delaware home?"
58% of all voters said yes. Only 21% said no.
This appears to be a revelation to 34% of the voters who currently approve of Biden’s job as president.
This can explain why, since last month, President Trump increased his lead over President Biden to 48% to 43%.
President Trump also widened his lead over Kamala Harris to 50% to 40%.
Kamala Harris who could succeed President Biden has very similar unpopular ratings with only 39% favorable and 52% unfavorable.
President Biden among Democratic primary voters nationally musters only 24% of their vote. Michelle Obama is at 14%, Pete Buttigieg 7%, Gavin Newsom 7%, Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton are at 6%, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez 5%.
All others receive fewer votes.
If Joe Biden runs for re-election he will have to continue to change the rules and use his incumbency to fend off any possible challenge that can expose his weakness.
If he doesn’t run, it’s a free for all.
In contrast among likely Republican primary voters, 58% want President Trump to run again. If Trump runs again, they will support him 72% to 23%.
In a crowded field he leads with 43% to DeSantis 31%, Pence 5%, Cheney and Haley, 3%, and others even less. One on one Trump leads DeSantis 52% to 41%.
Just a note of further promise for President Trump, Facebook’s decision end their censorship and to restore President Trump’s constitutional right to free speech on their platforms will make his posts available to 69% and 39% of all voters who use Facebook and Instagram respectively.
The new House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries starts as a polarizing political figure with 26% of all voters favorable to him and 24% unfavorable. 30% of the voters have heard of him, but have yet to form an opinion of him. 21% say they never heard of him.
Democrats like Rep. Jeffries 45% favorable to 11% unfavorable. Independents are only 18% favorable and 25% unfavorable, while Republicans are 12% favorable and 36% unfavorable. African American voters are net positive 33% to 21%.
On other issues:
—70% of all voters disapprove of lowering the voting age to 16 to vote in federal elections.
Only 26% approve.
—Voters are split on partisan lines on raising the debt limit. Among all voters 44% approve.
However, when the effects of raising the debt limit is tied to inflation, only 38% would raise the debt limit to keep the federal government from defaulting.
49% would not raise the debt limit to cut waste and get inflation under control.
—In a series of questions sponsored by SecureAmericaNow.org, 83% of all voters agree "A nuclear Iran is a security threat to America and Israel."
Only 9% disagree.
—62% support "the United States taking military action to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons."
Only 26% oppose.
—When voters were told that "Iran has announced it will be stationing warships in the Panama Canal. Since Iran is the world’s largest state sponsor of terror," 61% say "the United States take military action to expel Iranian warships from the Panama Canal that could threaten the United States."
Only 15% say not to take action.
America’s voters still face very serious issues, but it’s very clear they are not happy, and they have postponed their decision for real change to 2024.
National Survey and Political Environment Analysis Likely General Election Voters Presented by: John McLaughlin On the web www.mclaughlinonline.com
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 40 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.
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