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CDC's Flawed Epidemiology: 299,000 'Excess' Deaths in 2020

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Mark Schulte By Tuesday, 22 December 2020 08:34 AM EST Current | Bio | Archive

The author is a non-clinician.

On Oct. 20, two weeks before the presidential election, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published online a flawed epidemiological study that claimed "299,000 excess deaths" occurred in America between late January and early October 2020.

The CDC report attributed 198,000 of these misleadingly labelled "excess deaths," or 66%, to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Focusing on the "age, race and ethnicity" of these 299,000 deceased Americans, the study inexcusably ignored a small group of incompetent Democratic governors, who are responsible for a disproportionate majority of the several hundred thousand additional deaths in 2020.

This chart compares monthly deaths from all causes in 2019 and 2020, between March and May, which was the peak period of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic:

Deaths 2019 2020
March 255,000 269,000
April 235,000 321,000
May 237,000 279,000
Total 727,000 869,000

Thus, 142,000 more Americans died between March 1 and May 31 this year, as compared to total fatalities in the same period in 2019.

Five states with Democratic governors are responsible for 79,900, or 56%, of these additional 142,000 all-causes deaths:

State Additional Deaths Governor
New York 39,900 Andrew Cuomo
New Jersey 17,200 Phil Murphy
Illinois 8,100 J.B. Pritzker
Michigan 7,400 Gretchen Whitmer
Pennsylvania 7,300 Tom Wolf

But in 2019, these combined population of these dystopian Democratic states was 64 million, or just 19% of America's 329 million.

By contrast, this table lists the additional deaths, from March and through May between 2019 and 2020, in the five most populous states with Republican governors:

State Additional Deaths Additional Deaths
Texas 3,900 Greg Abbott
Florida 3,200 Ron DeSantis
Ohio 3,000 Mike DeWine
Georgia 3,100 Brian Kemp
Arizona 1,800 Doug Ducey

Thus, these states with competent Republican governors had only 15,000 of America's 142,000 additional deaths this year between March and May, or 11%.

Moreover, the combined population of these Red states last year was 81 million, or 25% of nation's total.

Since the CDC's death counts from all causes in 2020 are complete except for December, these tables include states that have had large numbers of additional deaths so far in 2020, as compared to the final totals for 2019:

Democratic States Complete Incomplete 2019/2020 Increase
New York 157,000 188,000 31,000
California 270,000 283,000 13,000
New Jersey 75,000 88,000 13,000
Illinois 109,000 117,000 8,000
Michigan 99,000 105,000 6,000
Pennsylvania 134,000 140,000 6,000
Total 77,000

Republican States Complete Incomplete 2019/2020 Increase
Texas 204,000 225,000 21,000
Florida 207,000 224,000 17,000
Ohio 123,000 124,000 1,000
Georgia 86,000 91,000 5,000
Tennessee 72,000 79,000 7,000
Arizona 60,000 69,000 9,000
Total 60,000

Five of these populous Red states (except Ohio) will have suffered more deaths from all causes in the second half of 2020, than in the first half. Three major reasons are: the nationwide increase in deaths from pneumonia and drug overdoses; and the increase in COVID infections in Texas and Arizona originating in Mexico.

However, these additional deaths in Texas, Florida and Arizona have disproportionately occurred in Democratic-run cities and their surrounding suburbs.

Texas County Deaths Major City
Harris 3,242 Houston
Hidalgo 1,902 McAllen
Dallas 1,831
Bexar 1,630 San Antonio
El Paso 1,513
Tarrant 1,270 Dallas suburb

Thus, 11,388 of Texas' 25,348 COVID deaths, or 45%, have been in Democratic strongholds.

Arizona County Deaths Major City
Maricopa 4,684 Phoenix

Thus, 59% of Arizona's 7,971 COVID deaths occurred in this Democratic-run mega-county.

Florida County Deaths Major City
Miami-Dade 4,050 Miami
Palm Beach 1,816 West Palm Beach
Broward 1,768 Ft. Lauderdale
Hillsborough 1,023 Tampa
Pinellas 996 St. Petersburg

Thus, 9,653 of Florida's 20,568 SARS-CoV-2 fatalities, or 47%, were in these five deep-Blue counties.

Similarly, in the heavily populated states with Democratic governors, many COVID deaths occurred in the Democratic-run, dysfunctional large cities, including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Detroit and Philadelphia.

When the number of deaths in America in 2020 are completely counted early next year, the total will be roughly 3,150,000, or 295,000 more deaths than the 2,855,000 in 2019.

Therefore, the CDC's claim, that 299,000 "excess deaths" occurred this year between late January and early October, is egregiously wrong.

Mark Schulte is a retired New York City schoolteacher and mathematician who has written extensively about science and the history of science. Read Mark Schulte's Report's — More Here.

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The CDC report attributed 198,000 of these misleadingly labelled "excess deaths," or 66%, to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Tuesday, 22 December 2020 08:34 AM
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