A Mini Invasion of Poland from Belarus?

Poland has now sealed its eastern border tight. The migrant crisis has been internationalized. Russia is involved, in addition to other actors. The Poles view this as a palpable threat to their sovereignty.

On November 11, 2021, U.S. Veterans Day, Polish Independence Day, and European Armistice Day, about 100,000 people marched peacefully in Warsaw to celebrate freedom and those who gave their lives to defend it. There were smaller demonstrations and festivities in other cities, and church masses of thanksgiving, perhaps most notably in Cracow.

Among the slogans chanted and banners waved, strong words of support stood out for the Polish Border Guards and army units directly protecting the frontier. That is because Poland’s eastern border has been under siege for a few months now.

The Poles love their freedom and domestic tranquility. Poland is considered the safest place for women in Europe precisely because there are very few culturally incompatible migrants.

However, in revenge for U.S., Polish, and Balt support for the nationalist and democratic opposition in Belarus as well as Western sanctions on his regime, the Minsk dictator Oleksandr “Daddy” Lukashenka has unleashed a wave of migrants against Latvia, Lithuania, and, especially, Poland. His regime has not only countenanced human trafficking, but it also deceived the gullible Third World trespassers to keep pouring in.

The migrants have set up encampments on the Belarusian side of the border. They clear trees for fuel and weapons, throw projectiles at the Polish guards, and endeavor to breach the perimeter en mass, in small groups, and even individually.

There have been thousands of attempts to breach the Polish border in the past few months. A few get through, but then they are stopped and immediately deported.

However, about 2,000 have reached Germany – via human traffickers – since August. Many more are apprehended daily as they are trafficked by the coyotes of different background, including Uzbeks, Afghans, Kurds, and others, mostly originating in the West.

Polish leftists assist them, too. At least some of them are reportedly funded by outfits connected to George Soros.

“Daddy” has ordered Belarus soldiers and secret policemen to stage provocations against the Poles.

Accordingly, Belarusian security forces have breached the border, brandished their weapons, fired shots, threw objects at their Polish counterparts, and assisted in physical assaults by the migrants against the Polish frontier personnel. A number of Polish troops have been wounded; one died of exposure.

The dictatorship has lured thousands from the Third World Belarus and fed false hopes of an easy transit to the West. Now the would-be trespassers are thwarted by the EU law, a determined attitude of the Polish government, and intractable steadiness of the Polish border guards and troops.

Unlike its scathing attitude toward Hungary during the migrant crisis in 2016, the European Union has actually been supportive of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia this time around.

Brussels has condemned “human trafficking” and “hybrid warfare” Belarus wages against its neighbors. But there is not much material help forthcoming; no EU forces to speak of have materialized on the border to thwart Daddy’s migrants.

Nonetheless, at least some in Western Europe, in Germany in particular, are thankful for the Poles’ blocking access to the new wave of migrants. Officially, Berlin is ambiguous.

The Left wants to take all the migrants in; the German government is less than willing; and the public opinion tends to be against admitting anyone more.

The White House seems confused at best, dangerously out of its depth at worst, subverting America’s allies. Perhaps overreacting a bit, NATO held war games stimulating a nuclear war with Russia, in a quid pro quo for earlier Russian provocations.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin rejected Warsaw’s charge that it was responsible for the stoking the border crisis as “irresponsible.” Moscow has further lectured the Poles to take the migrants in because Poland destroyed Iraq fighting there on the American side.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov opined that the EU should pay off Belarus to stem the tide just as it did Turkey in 2016. To underscore its support for Minsk, Moscow has stepped up the integration process of both countries.

But some have understood already that the Poles will not budge. Iraq has accordingly commenced organizing evacuation of its citizens from Belarus.

Hopefully, a general de-escalation will be next, but not yet. The Kremlin has not had enough. It enjoys our discomfort.