Although Joe Biden claims he plans to run for a second term, it's a very different matter whether his failing mental and physical capacity will eliminate that option as many predict.
In a March 25 statement, Biden said: "My plan is to run for reelection, that's my expectation."
On the other hand, a November Politico/Morning Consult poll showed that 50% of registered voters disagreed with the statement, "Joe Biden is in good health," while only 40% agreed and 10% did not know or had no opinion.
Either way, Democrats have a big 2024 conundrum regarding what, if anything, can be done about another big problem — namely his enormously unpopular prospective running mate or presidential candidate successor Kamala Harris.
If Joe's plummeting approval numbers aren't already disastrous enough, Kamala's are even worse.
Whereas an early November USA Today-Suffolk University poll had Biden's job approval rating dipping to 38%, with 59% disapproving, Harris' approval rating is 28% — even worse, with 51% disapproving of her performance and 21% undecided.
In addition, there is rumored tension and dysfunctionality between their White House staff offices, if not between their personages, which has reportedly reached an "exhausted stalemate."
Harris' allies are reportedly frustrated that team Biden is dumping politically losing toxic issues in her lap, such as announcing in March that she would lead the administration's responses to the U.S.-Mexico southern border immigration "issue."
That assignment turned out badly for both sides, as evidenced by Harris' rocky visit to Mexico and Guatemala in June and brief trip to El Paso at the end of that month. Those visits followed a disastrous interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt, in which Harris responded to Holt by noting that she hadn't yet been to the frontier region by chuckling and joking: "And I haven't been to Europe."
Harris was conspicuously absent when Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Attorney General Merrick Garland and Homeland Security chief Alejandro Mayorkas met with their Mexican counterparts about the border issue.
The veep was also missing in action during most of the discussions Biden held with members of Congress as he attempted to secure passage of the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, including a critical Nov. 5 meeting when the White House attempted to lock down crucial votes.
Harris visited a NASA facility in suburban Maryland at the time, and that turned out badly as well. A NASA-sponsored video of her cloyingly phony behavior with the child actors won her no performance awards, nor did her cringeworthy appearance with a phony French accent and arm waving while speaking to French scientists.
The ugly truth of the matter is that Kamala Harris is fundamentally unlikeable, even by her own staff.
As reported by Politico, her office was "chaotic" with a "tense and at times dour" atmosphere."
"People are thrown under the bus from the very top, there are short fuses and it's an abusive environment," one source told the outlet at the time. "It's not a healthy environment and people often feel mistreated. It's not a place where people feel supported but a place where people feel treated like s---."
In short, "cackling Kamala" rubs many voters the wrong way — branded as an uninspiring leftist and weak leader — regardless that her Biden pick as vice president running mate is credited as a historic gender and race breakthrough.
Now, within about a year, Joe Biden is the most unpopular president at this point in his term of office, other than Donald Trump, and Kamala Harris is likely the most unpopular vice president ever.
Meanwhile, Biden's approval ratings continue to plummet for objective reasons, with inflation soaring, a choked supply chain, and a foreign policy fiasco that has abandoned hundreds of Americans and an estimated $85 billion in advanced weapons in Afghanistan ... arguably the most chaotic military debacle in our nation's history.
At 78-years, Joe is clearly showing mental decline, an increasingly spacey and confused figure who is clearly dependent upon his younger wife and aides barely going through the teleprompted machinations of being president.
Odds on chances, the 2024 Republican candidate for top office will be Donald Trump who isn't much younger, but nevertheless is obviously far more vigorous with no evidence of cognitive reversal.
Furthermore, a mid-October NPR-Marist poll revealed that 44% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents thought "someone else" besides Biden — and presumably Harris as well — would have the best chance of winning the 2024 presidency.
More than 40% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents believe their party will have a better chance of winning in 2024 if President Biden is replaced at the top of the ticket.
Among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, 50% believe former President Donald Trump gives them the best chance of retaking the White House, 35% opt for someone else, and 14% don't know.
Whether for reasons of Biden's involuntary declining "health" or personal decision, a "someone else" named Kamala Harris leaves the Democrat Party with a dilemma from hell. How can they hope to replace their most presumed candidate, an incumbent vice president who is the first minority woman to hold that office?
Is it a foregone conclusion that Democrats will elect Harris as their nominee because it's historically "her turn"?
And if not, what message does this convey regarding the aura of a failed presidency?
The recent red sea change of Virginia gubernatorial loss of Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe is especially worrisome and perhaps provident. Campaigning for McAuliffe, Harris said, "What happens in Virginia will, in large part, determine what happens in 2022, 2024 and on."
Further, this isn't just a matter of whether or not the Democratic Party will endorse a Harris candidacy in the event of Biden's resignation or removal for those so-called "health reasons." After all, anything can happen between now and 2024.
It's also a question about whether they will keep her on the ticket in 2024 if he should happen to run again. But if not, and that's unlikely, the pickings of promising alternates or replacements is slim to nonexistent.
Despite her dismal poll ratings, according to a Hill-HarrisX poll, Kamala and former first lady Michelle Obama are the top picks. Harris led all potential candidates with 13% of support from voters, Obama came in a close second with 10%, with all other potential candidates listed at 5% or less support.
With the Democratic Party lacking a bench with any shining stars — the very reason why Biden won the nomination and settled for Harris in the first place — her nomination remains safe.
In any case, purge any illusion that Harris would gracefully bow out if asked to do so.
The bad news for Democrats is that they are stuck with her. Either way, as incumbent vice president or 2024 presidential candidate, it's also inevitably very good news for Republicans.
Larry Bell is an endowed professor of space architecture at the University of Houston where he founded Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture and the graduate space architecture program. His latest of 11 books, "Beyond Flagpoles and Footprints: Pioneering the Space Frontier" co-authored with Buzz Aldrin (2021), is available on Amazon along with all others. Read Larry Bell's Reports — More Here.
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