Four days after Michigan's four-term senator, Debbie Stabenow, announced she would not seek reelection in 2024, her fellow Democrats began moving quickly toward seeking or uniting behind a candidate.
But Republicans, who last won a Senate race in the Water Wonderland in 1994, are taking a quieter, thoughtful look at just who might put Stabenow's seat in their hands.
Among Democrats, it is now a foregone conclusion that three-term Rep. Elissa Slotkin will declare for the Senate sooner rather than later. A former CIA and Defense Department analyst, Slotkin unseated Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop with 50.6% in 2018. Two years later, she eked out reelection (50.9%) over former TV newscaster Paul Junge and in November she beat Republican State Sen. Tom Barrett with 51.7% of the vote.
"It's almost 100% she's going to run," Ingham County (Lansing) GOP Chairman Tom Klunzinger told Newsmax. "And assuming he runs again, Tom Barrett can win the 7th District House seat."
For now, most other Democrats are taking themselves out of the race rather than jumping in. There was considerable speculation last year that Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg would run for the Senate if Stabenow stepped down. The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor and 2020 Democratic presidential hopeful had purchased a home in Traverse City with husband and Michigan native Chasten. But days after Stabenow announced her surprise exit, "Mayor Pete" told reporters he was staying in the Biden cabinet.
Similar "no thanks" responses to the Senate race swiftly came from Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan and Rep. Dan Kildee of Flint. Two other possibilities on the Democratic side are Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II, who could make the case that he would be the lone Black Democrat in Michigan's congressional delegation if elected senator, and State Senate Majority Whip Mallory McMorrow of Royal Oak, a Squad-like leftist who helped raise money that gave Democrats their first majority in the state senate in 40 years.
But signs are strong neither Gilchrist nor McMorrow will run, thus accentuating the likelihood of Slotkin's nomination.
Among Republicans, there appears to be a vacuum of strong contenders. The most oft-mentioned hopeful is John James, who just took office as a freshman congressman early Saturday morning. West Point graduate and Oakland County businessman James, who is Black, lost two heartbreakingly close races for the Senate in 2018 and 2020. But he also won an unusually close battle last year for the newly carved House seat he was expected to capture with ease.
Two-term Rep. Lisa McClain and Candice Miller, a former secretary of state of Michigan and past congresswoman, expressed an interest in running. Whether stalwart conservatives McClain and Miller want to go through with a statewide race when they are ages 58 and 70 respectively is uncertain.
For now, the safest thing to say about Michigan's now-open Senate seat is that 15 months before the filing deadline, anything can happen.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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