A newly released poll has shaken expectations in Louisiana and Washington, showing the state’s Republican Senate primary far more competitive — and uncertain — than many anticipated.
According to the latest Emerson College poll, two-term Sen. Bill Cassidy is currently running in third place among likely Republican primary voters.
But Cassidy remains a contender despite criticism from President Donald Trump.
Cassidy trails two candidates more closely aligned with Trump and the MAGA movement: State Treasurer John Fleming and Representative Julia Letlow.
Fleming leads narrowly with 28%, followed by Letlow at 27%, while Cassidy comes in at 21%.
At first glance, Cassidy’s position might seem weak.
However, his standing is notable given the political headwinds he faces.
Trump has repeatedly criticized Cassidy, particularly for his vote to convict during Trump’s second impeachment trial, and has reaffirmed that criticism in recent days.
Cassidy has also broken with Trump on policy matters, including opposing his nomination of Casey Means for U.S. Surgeon General.
Despite all this — and without Trump’s endorsement — Cassidy remains competitive and within striking distance of a runoff spot.
Under Louisiana election rules, if no candidate secures a majority in the May 16 primary, the top two finishers will advance to a June 27 runoff.
The eventual Republican nominee is widely expected to win the general election in November.
The dynamics of the race have also surprised many observers.
When Trump endorsed Letlow earlier this year, many Republicans assumed the field would consolidate around her, effectively clearing her path to the nomination.
Instead, Fleming has emerged as a strong contender, slightly outperforming Letlow in the latest polling.
Some Louisiana Republican insiders point to name recognition as a key factor.
As a statewide elected official, Fleming benefits from broader visibility — similar to Sen. John Kennedy before him — while Letlow’s base in northeastern Louisiana represents a smaller share of the state’s population.
Trump’s endorsement remains a powerful force in the race, and Letlow has leaned heavily on it in her campaign messaging.
Meanwhile, both Cassidy and Fleming have recently stepped up their attacks against her in television advertising, signaling an increasingly competitive and aggressive contest as early voting begins.
Fundraising numbers further highlight Cassidy’s resilience.
In the most recent reporting period, he raised over $6.4 million, significantly outpacing Letlow’s $3.9 million and Fleming’s $3.7 million.
This financial advantage has allowed Cassidy to remain visible and competitive despite his political challenges.
Looking ahead, many Louisiana Republicans expect that whichever candidate advances to a runoff against Cassidy could receive renewed backing from Trump, potentially reshaping the race once again.
For now, however, the primary remains wide open — and far less predictable than it first appeared.
© 2026 Newsmax. All rights reserved.