Historian: Odds Against Harris in Run for President

Based on the extraordinarily late point in the campaign at which Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, as well as the historical odds against a sitting vice president seeking the top office, a distinguished historian concluded that Vice President Kamala Harris will have an uphill battle in the fall election if she becomes the Democrat nominee.

"Biden waited longer to withdraw than Harry Truman or Lyndon B. Johnson, each of whom withdrew in March, of 1952 and 1968, respectively," Chapman University professor Luke Nichter, author of the critically acclaimed "1968: The Year That Broke Politics," told Newsmax. "This makes it even harder for the Democrats to organize for the convention and the fall campaign."

Nichter also noted that "there is also a question of what Biden's delegates will do, or whether another candidate can inherit his campaign war chest. Access to those funds is a much more critical issue than it was in Truman or LBJ's eras, given the typical cost a presidential campaign is more than a billion dollars."

Like Johnson, Biden is being lauded as selfless by those in his party – including by those who recently turned against him, said Nichter, who has also written a biography of 1960 Republican vice presidential nominee Henry Cabot Lodge entitled "The Last Brahmin."

"He is likely to experience defections from his ranks of staffers and Cabinet members who want to work in the next administration," Nichter said.

Turning to the post-Biden Democratic Party, Nichter agreed with just about everyone else that Vice President Harris will be the likely nominee and will inherit Biden's campaign infrastructure.

"Harris will have the most difficult challenge of all running simultaneously on themes of continuity and change, and every statement she makes will be measured against her past statements – especially any distance between her and Biden, from whom she continues to depend on for support," Nichter said.

"Harris has a task that is almost completely unprecedented – beginning a campaign so late while also serving as vice president for the outgoing president. Since World War II, the only time a candidate has done both successfully was George H.W. Bush, in 1988, although that was very different, since Ronald Reagan was term limited after eight years."

When Truman dropped out in 1952, Vice President Alben Barkley lost the nomination to insurgent Adlai Stevenson. In 1960, Vice President Richard Nixon won the nomination but barely lost to John F. Kennedy. In 1968, Vice President Hubert Humphrey won the nomination but lost to Nixon – the closest historical analogy to 2024. Vice President Al Gore won the nomination in 2000 but lost narrowly to George W. Bush.

Finally, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the nomination in 2016 but lost to Donald Trump. She is the most recent example – running not as vice president, but someone closely connected to outgoing President Barack Obama's legacy.

Nichter also brought up the possibility of an unexpected development.

"In 1968, Humphrey was encouraged by some to resign from the vice presidency so he could fully commit to running his campaign," Nichter said. "He refused to do so, knowing that the only reason he had reached the vice presidency was because of LBJ. Humphrey could not betray him. However, Humphrey stopped using the vice presidential seal at campaign appearances after Sept. 30.

"But it was never easy for Humphrey. If he proposed a new policy, a critic could ask why it was not implemented during the previous four years. If he tried to show separation with LBJ, the latter accused him of being disloyal. The outgoing president needs to tap the same donors to build their presidential library, a process that costs as much as running a presidential campaign.

"Humphrey and Harris, each from the liberal wing of the party, could not shake off the image of being a surrogate for an unpopular president. Yet to shift away from that president, in order to energize the party, also comes with risks. If Harris can pull off the required balancing act, she will achieve something no one before her has achieved."

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.