With barely a week to go before the brass-knuckled Republican run-off for governor of Georgia comes to a halt, there are growing signs that the contest is coming to a showdown between the “outsider” wing of the party more closely aligned with Donald Trump and the “insider” or “establishment” faction.
Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, considered the favorite of the GOP establishment, leads Secretary of State Brian Kemp, widely considered the Trump-style “outsider,” by a razor-thin margin of 44 to 43 percent among likely voters in the July 24 runoff, according to a poll from independent firm Cygnal.
But an Atlanta Journal Courier/Channel 2 Action News poll gave the edge to Kemp by 44 to 41 percent.
"The gubernatorial runoff between Lt. Governor Cagle and Secretary of State Kemp is very close," Phil Kent, chief executive and publisher of InsiderAdvantage news service, told Newsmax, "With a low turnout estimated at less than 400,000 voters, victory for one or the other depends on turning our their core voters."
By most political yardsticks, Cagle should be comfortably ahead after leading in the initial primary. He recently had the blessings of former GOP presidential hopeful Steve Forbes, still a well-liked figure on the right, and days ago picked up the endorsement of popular outgoing Gov. Nathan Deal.
But Cagle in 2016 initially backed Jeb Bush for the Republican presidential nomination. Kemp didn’t initially endorse anyone for nomination but following the Georgia primary that year, he strongly backed Trump. Cagle also came around to Trump and stumped hard for him in the fall.
While one could argue that neither candidate can truthfully hoist the “Trump-style outsider” banner, two recent incidents underscored Cagle’s “insider” pedigree and accentuated the swing of Trump backers to Kemp.
On July 3, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Cagle spent more than $250,000 in tax dollars for flights between 2010 and 2018. A Cagle spokesman insisted the 413 flights were necessary for the lieutenant governor to meet the voters, but the Kemp supports stoked the impression of a politician taking advantage of the system.
Later in July, Cagle was rocked by the release of a secretly recorded tape in which he met with former gubernatorial candidate and state legislator Clay Tippins.
The tape has Cagle saying he supported an education bill despite believing it was “bad public policy” in hope that the Walton Family Foundation political action committee (which favored the bill to raise the tax credits for private school scholarships) would not donate to another candidate in the primary, former State Sen. Hunter Hill.
The Walton Family PAC did not come in with money for Hill’s cash-strapped campaign. Hill placed third in the crowded primary and was eliminated from the runoff.
On Tuesday, Hill announced he was backing Kemp in the runoff.
Along with these two incidents, Kemp’s “outsider” credentials have been burnished by a Trump-style platform calling for the defunding of sanctuary cities, a state spending cap and cutting regulations, and a vow to “round-up criminal illegals” in his pick-up truck if necessary.
For his part, Cagle embraces President Trump and his tax cut and promises a balanced state budget with no tax increases.
The incendiary nature of the GOP runoff has raised some concerns among Republicans about whether the eventual nominee will go into the fall campaign weakened. Few on either side underestimate the political punch of Democrat Stacey Abrams, a state legislator and the first black ever nominated by a major party for governor of the Peach State.
“Casey Cagle and Brian Kemp are fighting it out for the Trump ‘brand’ and that’s a wise thing to do in a state where 80-plus percent of runoff voters support their president,” said Matt Towery, the retired pollster and columnist who predicted Trump’s nomination a year before it happened. “But the eventual winner has to unite the party in what is shaping up as a tight race with Stacey Abrams. Forewarned is forearmed.”
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