By early Wednesday morning, Republican Mike Garcia held a comfortable 56 to 44 percent lead among votes counted in the special U.S. House election in California’s 25th District.
But given the strong lead Republicans had in requesting absentee ballots a few days before the balloting, the odds strongly favor a win by the stalwart conservative and former U.S. Navy fighter pilot over liberal Democrat and State Assemblywoman Christy Smith.
Roughly, 44 percent of the absentee ballots were requested by Republicans, 33 percent by Democrats, and 23 percent by Independents.
In part because of the coronavirus crisis, absentee voting was extra high. In Los Angeles County alone, which comprises the bulk of the 25th District, more than 100,000 voters chose to cast their ballot by mail.
Roughly 143,000 voters turned out Tuesday to choose the successor to former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, who resigned amid a personal scandal last year.
In the 25th District, a win by Garcia — strongly pro-life, anti-tax, a hard-liner on illegal immigration, and supporter of President Donald Trump — would be nothing short of startling. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried the district by 7 percentage points, and in 2018, Hill unseated Republican Rep. Steve Knight by 9 percentage points.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
© 2026 Newsmax. All rights reserved.