Tunisia Started Arab Spring; Arab Winter Next?

A harsh crackdown on political dissidents and a denunciation of minorities that opponents characterize as racist are the latest signs from Tunisia that the African nation that launched the Arab Spring in 2010 is now poised to launch the Arab Winter.

That is the opinion of many North Africa-watchers as well as Tunisians who spoke to Newsmax.

Since he enhanced his own power to ensure near-absolute rule nearly two years ago, Tunisian President Kais Saied has ended political parties, jailed opposition leaders without due process, and arrested journalists and judges he considers critics.

"And this is where the Arab Spring started," Olfa Hamdi, considered a potential opponent to Saied if elections scheduled for 2024 are held, told Newsmax. "Now we're headed for the Arab Winter."

Hamdi was referring to the storied event of Dec. 17, 2010, when a fruit peddler in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire after police seized his cart and said he was selling goods without a license. The self-immolation drew widespread press and mobilized protests in the streets against Tunisia's strongman president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. A month later, Ben Ali was out of power and had fled to exile.

The events in Tunisia enflamed young insurgents throughout the Middle East and Africa. Similar uprisings were triggered in Libya, Yemen, Sudan, and Egypt. But while movements toward democracy have not been successful in any of those countries, Tunisia remains the site of the most durable experiment to come out of the Arab Spring.

But this is changing rapidly. Nearly two years ago, Saied annulled portions of the Tunisian constitution by executive order. And in February, he launched a string of arrests of journalists, jurists, and activists who criticized him.

But in perhaps the most shocking move, Saied in recent weeks launched an all-out attack on the estimated 20,000 sub-Saharan Africans who have come to Tunisia (population: 12 million), charging they are part of a "criminal plot" to "consider Tunisia a purely African country with no affiliation to the Arab and Islamic nations."

The president also accused the sub-Saharans of being behind a growing crime wave throughout Tunisia.

The U.S. has taken notice of Saied's language about sub-Saharans. On March 6, State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters, "We, too, are deeply concerned by President Saied's remarks regarding migration from Sub-Saharan Africa to Tunisia and reports of arbitrary arrests of migrants in recent weeks. These remarks are not in keeping with Tunisia's long history of generosity and hosting and protecting refugees, asylum seekers, and migrants; and we're disturbed by reports of violence against these very migrants."

With the mounting assault on a minority as well as the president's growing grip on Tunisia, there are questions whether presidential elections scheduled for 2024 will even be held.

Hamdi, potential opposition candidate for president and CEO of Tunis Airlines until ousted for supporting reforms of the state-owned industry, recently announced her intentions to contest the next presidential elections.

"Over 70 percent of the population is under the age of 35," she said. "This undeniable demographic reality will be key to providing the change we need."

By change, Hamdi — 35 and a former engineering student in the U.S. under the "Einstein" green card — means overhaul of an economic system in which 80% of workers are unionized. An admirer of former President Ronald Reagan, Hamdi wants to bring a strong dose of market economics to Tunisia and has taken the "no tax" pledge made famous by Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform.

"We now have thousands of businesses going into bankruptcy and unemployment at 37%" she said. "And in 2022 alone, seven Tunisians set fire to themselves — making the same statement Mohamad Bouazizi made when he ignited the Arab Spring. Something has to be done."

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.