UK Conservatives Overshadowed by Giants of Their Past

(Editor's Note: The following is Part II of an opinion column appearing on: Oct. 18. 2023, which may be found here.)

In the tumultuous world of post-Brexit, where increased sovereignty and prosperity were supposed to result from separating from the European Union, disillusionment and regret seem to be clouding the way forward.

Nigel Farage, recognized as one of the chief orchestrators of Brexit, lamented the post-Brexit political landscape, stating, "What Brexit has proved, I’m afraid, is that our politicians are about as useless as the commissioners in Brussels."

This sentiment isn't isolated to just Farage; many, even within the Tory base, concede that the U.K.'s economic fortunes have not exactly taken a turn for the better post-Brexit.

The recent immigration fiasco spotlights a critical irony: one of the driving forces behind Brexit was a desire for greater immigration control, free from the EU's directives.

Yet, as the numbers reveal, post-Brexit Britain has not seen a triumphant reclamation of its borders. Instead, it's facing record levels of both legal and illegal immigration.

As if these weren’t enough problems facing an incumbent party, current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently announced plans to cleanse the British Isles of tobacco.

But in doing so, the conservatives risk losing the winds of personal freedom and responsibility that once filled their sails and face the challenge of navigating future budgets without the substantial revenues that tobacco has brought to the national coffers.

In the last year, tobacco yielded over 10 billion pounds in taxes. One cannot help but ask: Where will the government find a replacement for these sizable revenues?

Not to mention the inevitable black market that will emerge due to such a ban!

Ultimately, the conservatives’ odyssey seems headed toward even more treacherous waters with an election looming next year.

In a brief and tumultuous chapter of the Conservative Party’s saga, Sunak's predecessor, Liz Truss, commandeered the helm for a mere six weeks. Her leadership, a whirlwind of policy shifts, proposed the U.K.’s most radical tax cuts in decades — a staggering 45 billion pounds.

Dubbed "Trussonomics," her policies sent shockwaves through the markets, plunging the pound to a historic low and triggering a chaotic sell-off of U.K. assets. The aftermath forced the Bank of England into emergency actions to stabilize the rattled bond market.

Though Truss’s tenure was fleeting, it left a daunting legacy: a spiraling debt trajectory that looms ominously, threatening to soar public debt to a staggering 320% of Britain’s GDP within five decades.

Truss took the reins from a beleaguered Boris Johnson, whose administration was marred by controversies and criticisms, including his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Jonhson also had his fair share of political scandals, such as revelations of disregard for pandemic restrictions that challenged the integrity and stability of his leadership.

Now known as "partygate," the scandal revealed a breach of public trust and a blatant display of double standards, which only further angered an already disillusioned populace.

In yet another turbulent chapter of the U.K. Conservative Party, Theresa May’s three-year tenure as Prime Minister marked an era of miscalculations.

Riding the tides of favorable polls in 2017, May made a bold gambit, calling a snap election with the hopes of increasing her majority. But voters had other plans, denying the Conservatives a majority, leaving May adrift, never to regain her previous bearings.

Another misjudgment during May’s term was her decision to invoke Article 50, starting the clock on a two-year Brexit negotiation process without a single strategy or course of action in place.

However, it’s not just Truss, Johnson and May who faced difficulties; their conservative predecessors, too, have navigated tumultuous waters, and their tenures warrant reflection.

Take David Cameron, for instance — some argue that history will only remember him as the Prime Minister who took Britain out of the EU.

Others will argue that Cameron’s struggles also lay in articulating a unifying message to rally his countrymen.

Considering John Major, should history offer a more nuanced evaluation of his leadership?

Major made significant decisions, like abolishing the deeply unpopular community or poll tax, and maintaining a course of privatization.

But these retrospective glances invoke a critical question: Is there a recurring pattern amongst the conservatives’ leadership in Britain, indicative of an incomplete grasp of the broader economic picture?

Last week marked a grim chapter in the latest saga of the Conservative Party, as they faced two unprecedented defeats in crucial by-elections. The battlegrounds were the historically steadfast conservative constituencies of Mid Bedfordshire in southern England and Tamworth in the West Midlands.

The Labour Party, spearheading a remarkable charge, managed to overturn monumental majorities to clinch victory in both seats.

In Mid Bedfordshire, a fortress of conservative loyalty since its inception in 1931, Labour conquered a towering 24,664 majority, orchestrating a 20.5% swing.

Tamworth painted a similar tale of unexpected political upheaval. A bastion of conservative support since 2010, the constituency witnessed a 23.9-point swing in favor of the Labour Party.

These poignant losses serve as ominous signs, complicating the Tories’ navigational chart towards future electoral success.

Facing the impending storm, the conservatives might get lucky and catch the winds of redemption to guide them to political survival, which would resemble a hung parliament.

Or more likely, overshadowed by the giants of their past like Thatcher, their 13-year reign seems poised to conclude in a dramatic saga — a formidable vessel now at the mercy of the relentless seas of electoral despair and an unfolding crisis of identity.

Jacob Lane is a Republican strategist and school choice activist. He has worked for GOP campaigns at the federal, state and local levels, as well as with various PACs and nonprofits. Read Jacob Lane's Reports — More Here.