In Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's "Silver Blaze," Sherlock Holmes solved a mystery by noticing the "watch dog did not bark" while the family slept and a crime was being committed.
Just so, we may not avert a calamity if we do not in time note the dog(s) not barking in the current negotiations with the Iranian Mullahs.
As widely reported, President Trump indicated that Iran's recent proposal was sufficiently promising at least to pause his Operation Epic Fury and engage in serious negotiations.
But this must reflect his expectations to counter all of ten (10) provisions widely reported to be included Iranian proposals, e.g., from Erika Soloman's April 8 New York Times article:
A U.S. Guarantee of Non-aggression with Iran
Iran maintains control of the Strait of Horm
Ending the regional war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon
Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and positions in the region
Reparations to Iran for wat damage
Acceptance of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment
Lifting all primary sanctions on Iran
Lifting all secondary sanctions on Iran
—Termination of all resolutions against Iran by the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
—Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran
Obviously, this starting point for achieving an agreement was not at all encouraging, but President Trump is known for his mastery of "The Art of the Deal," so his supporters are nevertheless most hopeful to see
serious progress toward a reasonable agreement.
There are now more doubts, given the recent breakdown of those talks.
Thus, the geopolitical situation is now more confusing, and engenders at the least, a lot of confusion although everyone on our side still insists that Iran not be permitted to develop nuclear weapons.
Note that even a single nuclear weapon detonated at high altitude over the U.S. would produce an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that could shut down much if not all of our vitally important critical infrastructure.
Iran’s mullahs well understand this possibility, and so far as I know they still chant "Death to America!"
Among other related issues that may be vitally important, most important is perhaps the threat from China . . . that along with Russia and North Korea, already possesses nuclear weapons and missiles that already pose existential threat to all we hold dear.
And China is proactive in an alliance with Iran and its dependence on commerce involving the Strait of Hormuz.
Moreover, China, much more than other potential adversaries, has embedded its technology and economic investments within the United States in ways that already pose a potentially lethal threat to U.S. economic and military infrastructure and operations.
For example, consider just a few of the most important ways China and its operatives have posed such threats; they have:
—Purchased vast U.S. farmland surrounding many of our military bases, enabling easy access to potentially hostile operations.
—Demonstrated the means of remotely operated unpiloted air vehicles (e.g., drones) that could be employed in related ways; and
—Embedded potentially lethal cyber technology into our electric power grid . . . e.g., we have recently purchased from China over 600 large transformers and installed them in our electric power grid, without pertinent acceptance testing . . . (cyber-attacks of our grid already posed potentially an existential threat).
This list could be extended, but these three examples should suffice to illustrate the importance of acknowledging and taking steps to protect against the threat to America from China . . . and others who wish us ill . . . while addressing the continuing threat from Iran.
We ignore the "dogs not barking" at our peril!
Ambassador Henry F. Cooper, a PhD engineers with a broad defense and national security career, was President Ronald Reagan’s Chief Defense and Space Negotiator with the Soviet Union and Strategic Defense Initiative Director during the George H.W. Bush administration. Read more Henry F. Cooper insider articles --- Click Here Now.
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