An Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps missile exercise could be cover for a surprise attack on Israel, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned the Trump administration over the weekend, according to three Israeli and U.S. sources with knowledge of the issue, Axios reported.
Although the intelligence gathered only shows force movements in Iran, the IDF's risk tolerance is much lower than it used to be, two years after the Hamas terror attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israeli sources said.
One source added that "the chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise."
Israeli intelligence reportedly raised similar concerns six weeks ago after it identified Iranian missile movements, but nothing came of it.
Zamir called the head of U.S. Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, on Saturday to inform him of Israeli concerns over the Iranian missile exercise and urged American and Israeli forces to coordinate closely on defensive preparations, according to the sources.
Cooper was in Tel Aviv on Sunday and held a meeting with Zamir and top IDF officials to discuss the situation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet President Donald Trump next week in Florida and wants to discuss Tehran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile capabilities and the possibility of another strike against Iran in 2026, Israeli sources said.
Israeli sources told Axios that Israeli intelligence indicates early signs of a renewed buildup of Iran's missile capabilities with more motivation than Tehran had since the war in June against Israel.
At the end of the war, Iran had 1,500 missiles, down from 3,000 previously, and 200 launchers, down from 400.
The Iranians started rebuilding their forces but have not reached the level they were at before the war, Israeli sources said.
Israel doesn't think the pace of the rebuilding creates urgency to take military action in the next two to three months, sources said, but they stress it could become a more urgent issue later in 2026.
Brian Freeman ✉
Brian Freeman, a Newsmax writer based in Israel, has more than three decades writing and editing about culture and politics for newspapers, online and television.
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