Thursday's at-large congressional election in Montana might be closer than the polls indicate, according to a new report.
Roll Call examines the election between Republican Greg Gianforte and Democrat Rob Quist, one of whom will replace former Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Mont. — who is now serving as President Donald Trump's secretary of the interior.
RealClear Politics' poll roundup shows Gianforte has a double-digit lead in two surveys and an 8-point lead in another. Roll Call reported the final vote tally could be closer.
"It's going to be close, but we'll see who shows up at the polls," Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., said this week.
Trump won Montana in last fall's presidential election, 56 percent to 36 percent. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1952 with two exceptions — 1964 and 1992.
Montana's representation in Congress has not been as politically consistent, with both Republicans and Democrats serving in the House and Senate chambers. The current makeup is Tester and Republican Steve Daines in the Senate. Its only House seat is vacant because of Zinke's Cabinet appointment.
"Montanans go down the ballot irrespective of party identification and just vote for who they believe best represents Montana," Daines told Roll Call, which reported the House GOP's Super PAC has contributed $2.7 million to the race.
Another report this week backed Roll Call assessment of the race.
"Gianforte has an edge, but it's not going to be a slam dunk," a national GOP strategist told Politico.
Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for Gianforte on the ground in Montana earlier this month.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., was in Montana last weekend stumping for Quist.
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