With a Friday deadline for federal funding fast approaching, key Senate lawmakers are confronting what one top D.C. insider describes as a "nightmare" scenario after a federal agent shot and killed a man in Minnesota on Saturday.

The six-bill spending package, which includes Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding, continues to unravel.

Jake Sherman, co-founder of Punchbowl News and a well-connected Beltway observer, warned lawmakers and stakeholders Saturday that he "cannot see a scenario in which Senate Democrats can vote for this 6-bill package, which includes DHS funding," a blunt assessment that underscores the depth of resistance within the Democratic conference.

"This ICE situation is a nightmare for the Senate," he said in a post on X.

"Govt shuts down Friday. First Senate procedural vote likely not until Wednesday, giving them limited room to maneuver. House on recess. Any changes to the bill would require the House. Shutdown a real possibility at this point," he added. 

The compressed timeline is further complicated by the fact that the U.S. House of Representatives is in recess, removing the possibility of rapid negotiations or quick legislative fixes in the lower chamber if objections arise on the Senate floor.

Any substantive changes to the package, including the DHS title that funds ICE, would need to be reconciled by the House, a chamber with its own internal divides and competing priorities. The lack of legislative activity and absence of a clear path forward have increased the likelihood that the government could enter a partial shutdown as early as next weekend.

Senate Democrats have objected to several provisions in the current version of the spending package, particularly around immigration enforcement funding levels and policy riders.

GOP leaders negotiated the package with the goal of winning enough bipartisan support to advance the bills, but Democrats' resistance has put that strategy in jeopardy.

Republicans have signaled they are wary of funding ICE without concessions on border security and enforcement policy, making a deal that satisfies both sides even more elusive. Leadership in both parties has publicly expressed confidence in recent weeks that a funding agreement could be reached, but Sherman's commentary reflects growing skepticism among insiders that compromise is imminent.

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