Here is the state of the race with 36 days to go until Election Day:
Obama has the momentum in this race. McCain’s post-convention bounce has dissipated. However, there can easily be one or two more radical swings in the momentum of this race. We have already seen two swings: Obama went ahead in June before his European trip and then things swung back toward McCain from the Berlin speech right up through the Palin pick and the GOP Convention. But right now Obama has it all going in his favor.Obama helped himself in the first debate by appearing calm, relaxed, and capable of talking about all issues. McCain, too, made some good points, although he looked angry and refused to look at or directly address Obama, perhaps indicating a seething rage against his opponent.Polling since the debate gives the edge to Obama. Previously undecided voters said Obama won the debate.McCain’s strange campaign antics last week, shifting from one strategy to another, may have been fueled by total panic over a recent Rasmusen poll of a solid-red state: North Carolina. On Wednesday, right as McCain was “suspending” his campaign (how strange was that?) the new Rasmussen poll showed Obama ahead 49 percent-47 percent. This is a stunning result, and one certain to have spooked the McCain campaign. If McCain cannot win — easily win — a red state like North Carolina, he could be in terrible trouble come Nov. 4.
After the debate, Obama went to North Carolina and Virginia to hold huge rallies; McCain went directly to D.C. and has basically disappeared from the stump. The Palin problem: her Katie Couric interview was an unmitigated disaster. Couric turned the camera on Palin and let her talk. It has become all the talk in political circles — with even several GOP strategists and conservative female columnists calling for her to leave the ticket.She is not leaving the ticket. Instead, the pressure on the governor is ratcheted up for Thursday’s debate. She needs to at least hold her own and allow the gaffe machine, Joe Biden, to make a few more flubs.
I have been writing in this space that John McCain is a bad candidate; he is erratic, overrated, and a product of the so-called mainstream media, who have predictably turned on him.
The more the nation sees him directly, not through the filter of the media or TV commercials, the less people will trust him or want him to be their leader.
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