NATO's decision to stay out of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran has nonetheless revealed significant weaknesses in the alliance's military readiness, raising concerns about its ability to respond to a potential Russian attack in the coming years, according to interviews Politico conducted with high-ranking officials, diplomats, and defense experts.
"The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are not separate phenomena; there is much to learn from both," said Gen. Dominique Tardif, France's deputy air force chief, warning that these lessons "should lead us to a better understanding of how to direct capability development."
European officials increasingly believe Moscow could be ready to strike a NATO member by 2029, intensifying calls for urgent reforms.
Ammunition shortages are among the alliance's most pressing concerns.
The United States has already used "around half its total inventory" of key Patriot missiles during the Iran conflict, while French stocks "were running low" within weeks.
"We have too little of these assets," one senior NATO diplomat told the outlet, cautioning that a U.S. pivot toward the Indo-Pacific could leave Europe exposed.
Without changes, Russia "will price us out of a war quickly," warned British lawmaker Calvin Bailey.
With Moscow producing "6,000 to 7,000" drones monthly, NATO could exhaust high-end air defenses within "weeks," said analyst Justin Bronk.
The war has also challenged assumptions about air superiority.
Iran's ability to sustain thousands of strikes despite U.S. bombing highlights "the clear limits" of air campaigns, said SIPRI researcher Pieter Wezeman.
NATO must rethink its approach, Bronk argued, noting that "if we can get air superiority ... Europe on its own could devastate Russian forces," but only with expanded deep-strike capabilities.
Europe's naval readiness also remains less than adequate.
Britain's top maritime commander recently admitted the Royal Navy is "not ready for war," while fewer than half of Canada's ships are operational.
"Fleet availability across NATO really is quite poor," said former NATO official Ed Arnold, underscoring the alliance's struggle to project power at sea.
Perhaps most concerning is political disunity, notably in an era of a blunt U.S. president who has repeatedly told the alliance its members need to pay their share.
The Iran war has widened divisions, with European allies rejecting President Donald Trump's calls for military support.
Trump has continued to deride NATO as a "paper tiger" and is reportedly weighing retaliatory options.
"The risk is that the president can say, 'We're not getting involved,'" Arnold said, raising doubts about U.S. commitments in a future crisis.
Former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged Europe to take a harder line with Washington, arguing allies should adopt a more "transactional approach" and warning that "the time for flattering is over."
Officials also emphasized that Ukraine remains central to NATO's future defenses.
"Ukraine is acting as a security provider," one diplomat said, noting Kyiv's expertise in countering drones and its growing defense ties with NATO. The Iran conflict has "proven that," the diplomat added.
James Morley III ✉
James Morley III is a writer with more than two decades of experience in entertainment, travel, technology, and science and nature.
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