U.S. intelligence officials concluded before recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that even a major military campaign would be unlikely to bring down the country’s ruling clerical establishment, according to officials familiar with the assessment who spoke to The Washington Post.

The analysis, prepared by the National Intelligence Council, evaluated how Iran’s political system might respond to a broad military assault.

Officials briefed on the report said analysts determined that the country’s leadership structure is built to withstand significant external pressure, including attacks that could kill senior officials or damage key state institutions.

The report was completed shortly before the United States and Israel began carrying out strikes against Iranian targets, according to the officials.

The operation has focused on military facilities and other strategic sites as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated sharply.

Intelligence analysts assessed that Iran’s governing system, which combines religious authority with powerful security institutions, has multiple layers designed to preserve control during crises.

Even if top leaders were removed or killed in an attack, officials said the assessment concluded that the country’s ruling apparatus would likely remain intact.

One factor cited in the analysis is Iran’s established process for replacing senior leadership. The system includes mechanisms for selecting a new supreme leader and maintaining continuity within the country’s religious and political hierarchy.

The assessment also examined the possibility that internal unrest could weaken the government if Iran faced sustained military pressure.

But analysts determined that opposition groups inside and outside the country remain fragmented and would be unlikely to quickly unite around an alternative governing structure, officials said.

The findings raise questions about whether military action alone could lead to major political change in Iran. U.S. officials have said the strikes are intended to degrade Iran’s military capabilities and address concerns about its nuclear program.

Some political figures in Washington and Israel have also suggested that increased pressure on Tehran could ultimately destabilize the government.

However, intelligence analysts concluded that the Iranian system has historically shown resilience during periods of conflict and external pressure.

The classified report reflects the consensus view of multiple U.S. intelligence agencies and was circulated among senior policymakers ahead of the strikes, according to officials familiar with the matter.

U.S. officials declined to discuss the assessment publicly because it remains classified. Still, people briefed on the report said its central conclusion was that military force, even on a large scale, would not necessarily lead to the collapse of Iran’s current leadership structure.

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