U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies have intensified efforts to determine who is directing Iran's government after the country's newly installed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, again failed to appear publicly for Nowruz.
Fresh concerns were raised about a potential leadership vacuum in Tehran, Breitbart reported on Monday.
Officials in Washington and Jerusalem say there is still no clear evidence that Mojtaba Khamenei — who assumed power following the death of his father, Ali Khamenei — is actively exercising authority, with one senior Israeli official stating, "We have no evidence that he is really the one giving orders."
The uncertainty has become a central focus in intelligence briefings, including discussions involving President Donald Trump, as agencies work to assess Iran's command structure amid ongoing conflict and continued strikes targeting senior leadership.
Concerns intensified after Mojtaba Khamenei failed to deliver a televised address marking Nowruz, the Persian New Year — a key moment traditionally used by Iran's leadership to project stability. Instead, he issued a written message via Telegram accompanied by still images, the timing of which U.S. officials say remains under review.
"We would have expected to see Mojtaba in some form," one U.S. official said, calling the absence "a big red flag."
Mojtaba Khamenei was elevated to supreme leader on March 9 after hard-line factions consolidated support following the killing of Ali Khamenei in the opening wave of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28. Since then, he has not appeared publicly, and his initial message after taking power was read by a state television announcer rather than delivered in person.
Senior U.S. officials have offered mixed assessments of his condition. War Secretary Pete Hegseth said Mojtaba Khamenei was "wounded and likely disfigured," while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has suggested his injuries may be contributing to instability within Iran's leadership.
Other intelligence assessments indicate Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but may not be exercising the centralized authority his father maintained, a distinction officials say is critical as they evaluate who is issuing orders within the regime.
The uncertainty has been compounded by continued Israeli operations targeting senior Iranian figures. Intelligence officials had identified security chief Ali Larijani as a key decision-maker until he was killed last week, further widening what analysts describe as a growing power vacuum.
Multiple officials now assess that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is increasingly filling that vacuum, with some suggesting the powerful military force may be directing decision-making behind the scenes.
"The more likely scenario is that the Revolutionary Guards are controlling him, not the other way around," one source familiar with the intelligence assessments said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed those concerns this week, saying it remains unclear who is governing Iran and noting Mojtaba Khamenei's continued absence from public view.
Behind closed doors, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Defense Intelligence Agency Director James Adams told lawmakers in a classified briefing that Iran is facing a deepening command-and-control crisis, though they cautioned there are no immediate signs of regime collapse.
Brian Freeman ✉
Brian Freeman, a Newsmax writer based in Israel, has more than three decades writing and editing about culture and politics for newspapers, online and television.
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