Tags: Barack Obama | Senate | Republican Takeover | midterm elections | Kansas

Report: Senate Takeover Trending Slightly in GOP Favor

By    |   Thursday, 02 October 2014 12:20 PM

Republican chances are improving slightly as midterm Senate races head toward a November finish line, a new "crystal ball" report from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics notes.

While it's too soon to declare Republicans victorious in the Senate, the report's authors Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik, say Democrats are "behind the eight ball," noting that "so many undecided contests are winnable for the GOP that the party would have to have a string of bad luck — combined with a truly exceptional Democratic get-out-the-vote program — to snatch defeat from the wide-open jaws of victory."

Obama-friendly states in 2012 are breaking open for Republicans as well, the report found, but one state, Kansas, is proving the wild card as new polls, included most recently from USA Today and Suffolk University, found independent Greg Orman heading off incumbent U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts by five points, 46 to 41 percent. USA Today called it "the most surprising Senate race of the year."

Noted the Crystal Ball report: the polling lead in Kansas is the fifth since early September to see Orman pulling out ahead as the GOP sputters in what was expected to be an easy time of it for Roberts, 76, who has held his office since 1978.

In Iowa, the race between Rep. Bruce Braley and his Republican challenger Joni Ernst remains a toss-up, while in Colorado, Republican Rep. Cory Garner is barely holding off U.S. Sen. Mark Udall in what the Crystal Ball calls a "see-saw" battle. Udall, according to MSNBC, is finding his connection to President Barack Obama "problematic" as he battles it down to the wire in what is viewed as another toss-up race.

Republicans should be confident but not counting their chickens before hatched, the "crystal ball" report suggests.

Noted the most current UVA Senate projection: "At the moment we’re holding with a range of a five-to-eight seat GOP gain, but the long list of GOP targets does allow Republicans to post bigger gains if everything falls just right for them in the final month. They’ll need a small surge to do it — and it is not yet in evidence. Republicans also have to worry about the Democrats’ proven ability to out-work them in targeting voters and producing early/absentee ballots."

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Republican chances are improving slightly as midterm Senate races head toward a November finish line, a new "crystal ball" report from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics notes.
Senate, Republican Takeover, midterm elections, Kansas
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2014-20-02
Thursday, 02 October 2014 12:20 PM
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