Experts at Colorado State University (CSU) now predict that there will be above-average storm activity in 2023, an increase from the expectations that had been set earlier in the year.
Released Thursday, the CSU team increased the number of expected named tropical storms from 13 to 18 after looking at record-warm sea temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean's tropical and subtropical regions. An average year only contains 14 storms.
In addition, four major hurricanes and nine normal hurricanes are expected in 2023 — higher than the average annual three major hurricanes and seven normal hurricanes.
The CSU scientists estimate that there is a 50% chance that one of those expected major hurricanes will make landfall in the continental United States, higher than the 43% yearly average.
Still, the researchers warned that shearing winds from the west called an "El Niño" could force the storms off track and render much of their prediction moot.
"El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, which can tear apart storms as they form, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven wind shear," a press release by the team read.
Elsewhere in the release, the CSU team urged Americans, especially coastal residents, to "prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."
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