How to Flatten the Coronavirus Curve

A stunningly illustrative report by The Washington Post shows how social distancing helps "flatten the curve" for the coronavirus pandemic.

Flattening the curve has been the buzz phrase for how to curb the community spread to a manageable level throughout the U.S., and the report shows four scenarios in random visualizations:

• Free for all – like the U.S. had done until drastic action.
• Attempted quarantine – like what China had attempted initially.
• Moderate distancing – which is similar to what the U.S. policy is now.
• Extensive distancing – which some countries have gone to.

The study shows improvement of moderating the spread of a virus at each of the above strategies, with the bottom one proving to have the lowest peak infection level.

"That is math, not prophecy," the Post's graphics reporter Harry Stevens wrote. "The spread can be slowed, public health professionals say, if people practice 'social distancing' by avoiding public spaces and generally limiting their movement."

The free-for-all graphic showed the highest peak of infection. Most all countries in the world has moved to some level of restrictions on movement to slow the spread of the virus.

The force quarantined was what China had initially enacted in the Hubei province, and it proves to be limited in its ability to flatten the curve of the free for all.

"Many people work in the city and live in neighboring counties, and vice versa," former Baltimore Health Commissioner Leana Wen told the Post. "Would people be separated from their families? How would every road be blocked? How would supplies reach residents?"

And Georgetown's global health law professor Lawrence O. Gostin told the Post: "The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective."

Then, in the third simulation, a limited social distancing plan like the U.S. is currently under, shows the beginning of a shaving down of the peak of the infection curve.

"Above all, health officials have encouraged people to avoid public gatherings, to stay home more often and to keep their distance from others," Stevens wrote. "If people are less mobile and interact with each other less, the virus has fewer opportunities to spread."

And the final simulation shows what a drastic social distancing policy would do to the infection curve, rendering a very low peak and stretching the community spread out over time, making it more manageable for our healthcare system.

"We control the desire to be in public spaces by closing down public spaces. Italy is closing all of its restaurants. China is closing everything, and we are closing things now, too," The Thomas Jefferson University College of Public Health population health researcher and assistant professor Drew Harris told the Post. "Reducing the opportunities for gathering helps folks social distance."

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