With the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the OPEC+ group is losing one of its main pillars. UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed announced his country’s withdrawal from the Saudi-dominated oil producers’ group effective May 1, 2026.
A heavy blow to the cartel: prior to the onset of the Hormuz supply crisis, the UAE accounted for roughly 16% of total OPEC production. The government hopes this move will allow it to break free from strict output controls and gain greater national autonomy in the global energy market.
The goal, according to Zayed, is to increase daily production by the state oil company ADNOC from 3.4 million to 5 million barrels by next year.
The first step toward energy autonomy has already been taken: with the full utilization of the Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline, up to 1.8 million barrels per day can be pumped to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. In this way, the Emirates partially bypass the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck and gain long-sought strategic flexibility.
U.S. President Donald Trump commented on the UAE’s exit via his platform Truth Social: “I think it's great, it's a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting oil down, getting everything down. Mohammed is smart, he wants to go his own way.”
Trump recognizes the implications: the UAE’s departure tears a hole in the OPEC cartel, which still controlled 48% of global oil production. After Hormuz, the pricing system breaks—decisively.
Every cartel is inherently unstable—and this applies to OPEC as well, as current developments show. This undermines a major hope of the BRICS states, which had counted on a deeper integration between OPEC energy producers and the BRICS framework to accelerate the creation of a supranational counterweight to the postwar global economic order.
In particular, the establishment of an independent currency system—similar to the petrodollar but backed by steady flows of oil and gas—had the potential to emerge as a serious rival to the U.S. dollar system.
Regardless of the UAE’s defection, the petrodollar continues to dominate financial flows within OPEC.
Around 80% of the group’s total transaction volume is still conducted in U.S. dollars, compared to just 15% in Chinese yuan and 1% in Russian rubles. The U.S. dollar system—frequently declared obsolete—demonstrates its network power and geopolitical relevance precisely at this moment.
To reinforce this monetary network, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly secured a $50 billion dollar swap line for the UAE as an “exit premium”—a firewall against potential dollar shortages in eurodollar markets and a safeguard for its banking system.
After all, one never knows when the losers of geopolitical maneuvering might attempt coordinated attacks on capital markets.
The likely losers sit in the City of London. The old colonial influence—now largely a virtual financial power—is being unwound by the Americans at breathtaking speed. Alongside the swap line announcement, the hedge fund giant Citadel (with $60 billion AUM) revealed plans to integrate into Dubai’s DIFC financial system, signaling a clear U.S. financial offensive in the Gulf.
Citadel will provide sovereign funds such as ADIA and Mubadala, along with wealthy Emirati clients, access to global markets through proprietary structured products.
We are witnessing a rapid reordering of global energy markets. It cannot be ruled out that the U.S., Russia, and China are coordinating strategically behind the scenes.
The U.S. approach is straightforward: in Venezuela, American energy firms fill production gaps, ramp up output, and establish new value chains—extraction in Venezuela, transport to the U.S. Gulf Coast, refining in Texas, and export to energy-hungry markets in Europe and Asia.
In recent weeks, the U.S. energy sector has sharply increased exports of crude oil and LNG. A profitable development—and a reflection of the new geopolitical reality.
U.S. oil production rose by 1.8 million barrels per day to 13.4 million, a roughly 15% increase month-over-month. Crude exports climbed by 2.1 million barrels per day to 6.2 million.
LNG exports have also surged, with U.S. companies reporting gains of around 25%, reaching 90 billion cubic meters annually.
That German Chancellor Friedrich Merz—architect of Germany’s economic and debt crisis—has the audacity to accuse the U.S. of lacking strategy in Iran is, given these facts, best categorized as satire.
While Europeans struggle with the consequences of having forfeited their energy policy options, the U.S. is already eyeing the most critical maritime trade route: the Strait of Malacca.
Roughly 40% of global maritime trade passes through this corridor, including 80% of China’s oil imports. A recent agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia includes initial steps toward military presence and joint toll arrangements.
We are entering an era of resource dominance. Before our eyes, the global energy market is being redrawn—with the United States as the dominant actor.
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Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
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