With the U.S. already controlling more than one-fifth of global oil output, Washington’s expanding grip on Venezuela and Guyana could push that share toward 30% — a level that would fundamentally reshape world energy markets, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The United States already exerts an extraordinary 22% influence over the global oil market — nearly one barrel in every five consumed worldwide.
President Trump’s bid to operate Venezuelan oil threatens to push that dominance much further, potentially giving the U.S. effective sway over close to one-third of global supply,
That prospect poses a direct challenge to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose ability to manage prices has steadily eroded as U.S. production has surged to record levels.
Bringing Venezuela — one of OPEC’s founding members — into Washington’s orbit would mark a historic shift in the balance of power in global energy markets.
President Trump is preparing a sweeping initiative to rehabilitate Venezuela’s oil industry, restore production and channel its output through U.S.-aligned companies and trading networks, according to people familiar with the administration’s plans.
While Venezuela’s oil sector has been devastated by years of mismanagement, sanctions and infrastructure decay, even modest gains in output could have an outsized impact in a market already grappling with oversupply.
Analysts say the longer-term implications are far more significant.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Combined with U.S. domestic production and American oil interests in Guyana — where major U.S. companies dominate offshore development — the United States could soon exert influence over roughly 30% of global oil reserves and output, according to a recent JPMorgan analysis.
“This shift could give the U.S. greater influence over oil markets, potentially keeping prices within historically lower ranges, enhancing energy security and reshaping the balance of power in international energy markets,” the bank said.
For OPEC members already
supply power struggling to defend market share amid falling prices, the expansion of U.S. influence represents a strategic nightmare.
The cartel was designed to concentrate among producing nations. Instead, vast reserves are increasingly falling under U.S. control — or at least outside OPEC’s reach.
WRESTING VENEZUELA FROM OPEC
Some Gulf OPEC officials estimate that if Venezuela loosens regulations and creates legal protections attractive to U.S. investors, production could rise by as much as 2 million barrels a day within one to three years, up from less than 1 million barrels a day today.
Even incremental increases would further tilt the market toward surplus.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, is taking a wait-and-see approach.
Officials privately argue that rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure will take years and billions of dollars, and that U.S. companies will demand ironclad legal guarantees before committing capital.
Still, the kingdom recognizes the long-term threat: once Venezuelan barrels are effectively removed from OPEC discipline, they are unlikely to return.
Venezuela’s crude is heavy and sulfur-rich, making it less commercially attractive than lighter grades. But that has not deterred U.S. refiners, many of which are specifically configured to process heavy crude — and would welcome secure supplies under U.S. oversight.
$59 US BENCHMARK OIL
Some OPEC members see a potential upside. If U.S. control over Venezuelan output disrupts exports to China, Beijing could be forced to rely more heavily on Middle Eastern suppliers.
Even so, Gulf producers acknowledge that the broader trend favors Washington.
OPEC and its allies, including Russia, are already struggling to coordinate a response to President Trump’s repeated calls for lower oil prices. At a recent meeting, the group agreed to pause any production increases for the first quarter of the year, reflecting internal anxiety about demand and U.S.-driven supply growth.
Oil prices have fallen sharply over the past year. Brent crude is trading around $63 a barrel, while U.S. benchmark crude hovers near $59 — both down roughly 20% from a year ago. JPMorgan now expects Brent to average $58 this year and fall further next year.
Low prices strain nearly every major producer — except the United States.
While some U.S. shale companies struggle below $50 a barrel, the broader American oil ecosystem benefits from lower energy costs, stronger geopolitical leverage and increased export power.
By contrast, Saudi Arabia can produce oil for less than $10 a barrel but needs prices well above $100 to balance its budget. Russia’s oil sector is under pressure from sanctions, aging fields and mounting capital constraints. For both, a U.S. grip on Venezuelan and Guyanese supply tightens the vise.
US, TOP OIL BROKER
OPEC’s influence has been steadily eroded by rising output from the U.S., Brazil and Guyana.
Venezuela’s potential shift into Washington’s orbit would accelerate that decline — transforming the United States from the world’s largest producer into its most powerful oil broker.
“They’ve seen their pockets being picked by other producers,” said David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. “There is a lot of oil coming through, and OPEC just doesn’t have the clout it once did.”
If U.S. control over global oil output climbs from 22% toward 30%, the implications extend far beyond price charts.
Such dominance would give Washington unprecedented leverage over energy markets, rival producers and consuming nations alike — marking the most significant reordering of global oil power since OPEC’s rise more than half a century ago.
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