The following information is based on articles in Nezavisimaya Gazeta and other Moscow papers May 23-25.
In the early morning of May 14, six Russian strategic bombers, namely two TU-160Cs and four TU-95MCs belonging to the 37th Strategic Aviation Army, left the Engels airbase near Saratov city and reached the Indian Ocean five hours later. There the TU-95 fired two strategic cruise missiles X-55 (3,000-km range, usually with a nuclear warhead), which "precisely hit ground targets."
The Tu-160 bombers flew further and, at a 2,500-km distance, simulated the firing of several X-55 missiles at Diego-Garcia Island. The targets included a U.S. strategic aviation airbase, a naval base, the command and control center of U.S. strategic submarines in the Pacific Ocean, the U.S. electronic reconnaissance center and a nuclear warhead storage facility.
Several hours later, the six strategic bombers returned to Engels airbase. According to Russian Air Force Commander-in-Chief Col.-Gen. Vladimir Mikhailov, 1) Russian strategic bombers "visited" the Indian Ocean for the first time since 1990 and 2) the Russian top military command has a definite interest in this region.
On May 15, TU-95 and TU-160 strategic bombers and TU-22 long-range bombers accomplished military training over the Polar and Pacific oceans. All the bombers had a full battle load: Each T-95 carried 6 X-55 missiles, each TU-160 12 missiles. The X-55 usually is equipped with a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead. All the bombers simulated hitting important U.S and U.K. targets.
However, in accordance with direct orders from Putin to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, this time – in contrast with strategic aviation maneuvers in 1999 – Russian bombers didn't approach the borders of Norway, Iceland, Canada, the U.K. and the U.S. This was done to provide a "friendly environment" for the visits of Secretary of State Colin Powell to Moscow on May 16 and President Bush to Petersburg on May 30.
During the maneuvers over the Pacific Ocean on May 15, four TU-22 long-range bombers (two from the 37th AF Army, two from the Russian Pacific Ocean Fleet) simulated the simultaneous firing of four X-22 anti-ship missiles at the U.S. aircraft Karl Winson, which was moving at this time from the Yokosoka base in Japan to the coast of North Korea.
Maneuvers of Russian bombers in the airspace over the three oceans have been supported by the Russian Northern Fleet, Pacific Fleet, Strategic Missile Troops, Space Troops and two air force and air defense armies.
Gen. Mikhailov claimed that a) all goals of the maneuvers were reached and b) in July and August, the 37th Strategic Aviation Army will hold similar large-scale maneuvers (apparently against American and British targets), though the number of participating strategic bombers and long-range bombers will increase two to three times.
Remarkably, on May 16, a united group of the Russian Navy, compiled from the vessels from the Pacific Fleet and Black Sea Fleet, held "enemy [U.S. and U.K.] aircraft groups destruction maneuvers" in the Indian Ocean.
Concretely, the Moskva missile cruiser launched a P-500 Bazalt anti-ship cruise missile. This missile has a 480-km radius and is usually equipped with a 350-kiloton nuclear warhead. The Moskva missile cruiser has eight cruise missile launchers and a store of 16 Bazalt missiles.
(end of information from the Moscow papers)
1) Russian ground troops as well as a very significant part of the navy and air force degraded greatly during the last 10 years; their combat potential is close to zero. They are capable of being used against "internal rebels" only.
At the same time, the "elite troops" of the Russian army – strategic and long-range bombers, strategic and nuclear attack submarines, missile cruisers and missile destroyers, S-300 and S-400 long-range air-defense missile battalions and ICBM forces – are still on combat duty and more or less capable of fighting. Moreover, some essential elements of these elite troops are being upgraded.
2) America and the U.K. are considered by the Kremlin as its major – if not its sole – adversary. Russia’s elite troops prepare to strike the most important military and civilian sites of these two countries. That's despite all the sweet words about "cooperation, democratic principles and anti-terrorist struggle," etc., from both sides.
And the threat from Moscow to the U.S. and U.K. will continue growing in the near future. Russian leaders, including Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, openly state that the latest maneuvers of the Russian strategic aviation and navy in the Indian and Pacific oceans were a direct response to the American-British victory in Iraq and the recent NATO decision to include seven East European countries.
3) Russian naval vessels left Vladivostok and Sevastopol in the beginning of April – when the outcome of the Iraqi war became clear – to participate in joint maneuvers with the Indian navy and to train in attacks on American vessels.
However, this was done also to expand the Russian influence in the Middle East and, most important, to embolden Iran. Russia probably reached this last goal: Iranian leaders weren’t timid after the American victory in Iraq. To the contrary, Iran dramatically expanded its influence in post-Saddam Iraq.
It is possible to claim that the Shiite Islamic administration spreads from Iran to the southern and eastern regions of Iraq inhabited by Shiites. And who supports the guerrilla war in Iraq aimed against U.S. and U.K. troops? Not Iranians?
Simultaneously, Iran is accelerating its nuclear missile developments. Who provided Iran with advanced gas-centrifuge uranium enrichment technology? Not the Russian Miatom (Ministry of Nuclear Energy)?
4) The recent Russian maneuvers in the Pacific Ocean perfectly demonstrate that Russian strategic aviation and the Pacific Fleet consider U.S troops in Northeast Asia – particularly those located in Japan and South Korea as well as aircraft carrier groups in the Sea of Japan – as their primary targets.
No serious doubts should remain that in the event of conflict over North Korea, Russia would take part on Pyongyang’s side.
China's president, Hu Jintao, went to Moscow on the evening of May 26. During May 27-29 Hu had intensive talks with Putin. It is still too early to draw conclusions, but the following seems indisputable:
1) Sales of Russian weapons to China, which reached $2.5 billion in 2002, could surpass $3 billion or even approach $4 billion annually in 2003-2005. At the same time, the share of "finished" weapons will decrease, while the share of weapon components and weapon production technology will expand.
These figures don't include the growing transfer of "double-use technologies" in the space and nuclear sectors (around $1 billion in 2002) as well as joint R&D of new-generation weapons (hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars).
2) In 2003-2005, Russia will significantly increase the delivery of timber, steel and steel products, non-ferrous metals, chemical products and especially crude oil and oil products to China. The agreement over construction of the oil pipeline from Angarsk (Eastern Siberia) to Daqing (Northeast China) will eventually be signed.
Siberia and the Russian Far East, indeed, will be transformed into a "strategic rear base" of China. This will definitely be accompanied by a dramatic increase of the Chinese presence in the eastern regions of Russia.
3) According to published documents, Moscow and Beijing will do their best to protect Kim Jong-il’s regime: "Any pressure on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is intolerable." As is shown above, this means military support of Pyongyang if necessary. So, Kim Jong-il could continue his nuclear missile "experiments" and challenge America.
On May 30, President Bush, in Petersburg, will have to deal not with Putin alone, but with a Putin-Hu team. Was it necessary for the U.S. leader to visit Russia at such a moment?
The Iraqi war showed perfectly that the entire American policy toward Russia, beginning from mid-2001, was a great mistake. For how long will the White House and State Department continue making this mistake? And what will be the cost to America?
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