North Korea – The Road Not Taken

Not surprisingly, the recent talks between the U.S. and North Korea in China have ended in another impasse, just one more in a long succession of deadlocks.

In fact, the 50-year record of negotiating with North Korea is less than impressive. What is it about those menacing North Koreans that keeps U.S. negotiators in perpetual frustration? Is there a way to deal with this seemingly enigmatic regime that appears consistently to better the U.S. in international negotiations?

The question of how to successfully deal with North Korea becomes paramount. A new book, "

Part of the problem in negotiating with North Korea is cultural misunderstanding. North Koreans are quick to remind Americans that they do not understand North Koreans and, by and large, Americans do not. After surviving 35 years of brutal Japanese colonization, North Koreans developed their system of

While its economy lingers in the economic intensive care ward, the government has managed to maintain a formidable military structure to fend off foreign attack. In recent years, the North has acknowledged it desires better relations with Western nations, particularly the U.S., but has been stuck in the paradigm of Korean War politics that has left the two countries as enemies for five decades.

For certain, increased confrontation will produce further impasse. North Korean bluster and threats are intended to defend their honor. Essentially, all they have left is their sovereignty and pride. The U.S. needs to allow North Korea to negotiate in dignity, firm but friendly, without insult.

America has bargained with the North for the last 50 years, using basically the same adversarial approach characterized by positional bargaining, rigidly holding and then successively giving up a sequence of positions. U.S. and North Korean negotiators appear trapped in the legacy of the Armistice negotiations, both sides clinging to rigid positions and talking past each other.

A former U.S. ambassador to South Korea spoke of U.S. policy toward the North as “based on preconceived notions and Western logic that have little relevance to the regime’s unique character.” If Americans do not understand North Koreans well, it follows that the U.S. negotiation strategy is likely inadequate.

To succeed in negotiating with North Korea the U.S. must radically change its approach. The U.S. should focus not on positions but on mutual interests, of which there are several.

First, it is in both sides’ interests to resolve this matter peacefully. Both the U.S. and North Korea have said so publicly even while each side continues to rattle sabers and threaten tough actions.

North Korea fully understands U.S. military might. They have watched closely the U.S. success in Afghanistan and Iraq and are impressed with American military power. The North Korean elites realize a war will result in regime change.

But U.S. defense planners realize that North Korea is no Iraq. Its military force is far more committed, better trained and equipped. The mountainous terrain favors them, and the U.S. Air Force will not enjoy the immediate air supremacy America enjoyed in Iraq. In the first days of a war, the North Korean air force could devastate a population of nearly 20 million in the Seoul metro area, just minutes away by air.

In addition, North Korea has had 50 years to construct a fortified underground nation that will certainly put up more of a fight than Iraq. War would result in massive devastation to U.S. allies and our own troops.

Secondly, a nuclear Korean peninsula is not in either side’s interest. The problem is how to stop it. North Korea sees nuclear weapons as a means to deter a U.S. threat and the U.S. sees the weapons as a threat. It is these unyielding positions that have created the impasse.

The U.S. demands stopping the nuclear program before discussions, while North Koreans insist the U.S. stop threatening them before they consider abandoning nuclear weapons. They astutely cite Iraq as their reason. They claim the U.S. would use inspections to disarm North Korea before attacking it, as happened in Iraq.

Recently, North Korea stated that U.S. security concerns could be satisfied if it were given a written guarantee the U.S. won’t attack. Currently, the U.S. is clinging to a position that it might provide some type of verbal assurance but no written guarantee.

The U.S. must approach future talks without positions but begin by confirming underlying common interests. The U.S could acknowledge assurance of North Korea’s security in exchange for a verifiable plan that North Korea has abandoned its nuclear weapons program. From there American negotiators could begin to untangle the knot of how to accomplish agreement satisfactory to both sides.

The U.S. has a long road to travel to repair 50 years of confrontation. In the beginning, it must accept that there may be more form than substance. That formula will reverse as the relationship of trust develops.

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This is the real question: Can U.S. leaders recognize an opportunity for a breakthrough, or will they continue to repeat past failures? The path of cooperation is the road not taken for the U.S. and North Korea. As in Robert Frost’s poem, choosing the less-traveled path, at this point, will make all the difference.

Contact Dr. Saccone at