Levers of Governance

At stake is the real possibility the Republican Party could be governing America almost continually, well into the 21st century.

If the same American electorate that is virtually certain to carry President Bush on its shoulders triumphantly into a second term gives him no greater support in next year’s congressional elections than it did in 2000 and in 2002, then all those enthusiastic pro-Bush voters might as well stay home on Nov. 2, 2004.

Returning the president for another term in the absence of enough horses in Congress willing to pull his wagon without being flogged will do more than stamp “FAILED” in red ink across Bush’s final page in the history books. It will let the governance of the United States of America rebound into the untrustworthy paws of a Democratic Party lurching dangerously ever more leftward.

Despite historic 2002 mid-term gains in the House of Representatives and restoration of a razor-thin margin in the Senate, Bush still has not had enough Republican and Democratic votes he can count on in Congress to pass tax cuts approaching what he has asked.

Substantial, immediate tax relief is the key to Bush’s ability to pull the economy out of its slough of malaise and, in turn, handily seal his reelection. Short of that, he can still make it but will have to hustle all the way for the next 18 months.

The president has enough votes in the Senate to confirm all his judicial appointments, yet he lacks a “super-majority” of 60. Under current rules of the Senate that’s what’s needed to stifle a spiteful Democratic Party filibuster and drag those nominations onto the floor for an up-or-down vote.

Even farther beyond Bush’s reach is a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress, needed to override a veto of legislation.

The damage that continuation of this kind of closely divided Congress would do to a second Bush administration – let alone to the country as a whole – could be devastating.

Far worse would be the calamitous cascade this would in all likelihood have on the governance of the nation’s future.

That is essentially what Karl Rove, the president’s primary political operative, is saying.

Recently at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., Rove discussed his concept of how America governs itself. Predictably, the leftist mainstream press stumbled past – or painstakingly ignored – what could well be the watershed political story of this century.

Rove began with stating the obvious, which is not always that obvious to ideological partisans in either party whose verve easily convinces them there must be a majority out there that agrees with their bedrock philosophies.

He sees the electorate rather evenly divided, depicting it in conversation with both fists pressed tightly together, knuckles against knuckles.

Rove regards America now so closely divided that it will be moving into a novel era of generational political swings, one party or the other predominantly in power over approximately 30 years.

His main point is that when a party manages to become “the governing party” (here his fists move just a knuckle or two), it is likely to retain that control for the better part of up to 30 years, rather than see-saw every four or eight years with the other party.

That’s a span of 16 congressional elections and eight presidential terms. What party wouldn’t love to be in power for that long a stretch?

This is precisely the template of 30-year governance that Rove has in mind for his party, beginning with this Bush incumbency.

If Bush is to bring that off for the Republican Party, the following must take place:

If he fails at that, the impetus will shift to the Democrats, just as it did to the Republicans when Bush defeated Al Gore in the 2000 electoral college.

A party cannot govern without the White House, so it won’t matter much if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress but lose the presidency in 2004. It would then become the Democrats’ turn to try to set the conditions for winning a three-decade lease on power in Washington.

For if Bush has not been able to achieve most of his programs in Congress by the time his second term is ended, it will put the next presidency in peril for Republicans in 2008.

Even with a highly popular Bush in the White House for eight years, if he has little to show for it on Capitol Hill the Republican Party will be hard-pressed to come up with a nominee who could, with believability, promise what Bush failed to get through Congress.

Then, and only then, can Republicans expect realistically to enjoy governance over most of the first three decades of this century.

Those are the levers of governance that Republicans – beginning with the 2004 presidential and Congressional elections – must be able to grasp. Or they can kiss a 30-year tenure goodbye.

This is why Bush is today trying so manfully to build enough back-home support for his tax cuts among marginal Democrats and wobbly Republicans. In doing so, he is laying the imperative groundwork for 2004.

As for the long-range future of the Republican Party, unless this president obtains a strong majority in Congress it’s immaterial whether he, himself, is reelected.

Rove is right. The country is about evenly divided politically, neither leftist nor arch-conservative. If there is a tilt, it is to right-center. No party is going to create a tidal wave in its direction. But if not a tsunami then a change of tide would be nice, and this appears to be what Rove has in mind.

It goes like this:

Those are the unruly dynamics Rove has to be calculating as he devises strategies for Bush in 2004.

In fact, this is in play right now.

To what must be Rove’s delight, Bush is blossoming into an absolutely superb right-center candidate. The president obviously relishes it. Just watch him as he takes his tax cuts to the hustings. He’s better at this than anyone to come along in many a year.

OK, so he doesn’t always get his tongue around the right word at the right time, but neither do a lot of those other non-fancy folks to whom he is making perfect sense. He speaks the language they speak and understand.

They know what he’s saying, because they live what he means, which is more than can be said of all the left-wing television personae and elitist pundits, who rolled together couldn’t elect one of their own as dog catcher.

Bush doesn’t need fine-tuning. He has perfect pitch as it is.

What’s missing are enough of his kind of candidates, Republicans and Democrats, to bring a George W. Bush, middle-America Congress to Washington in January 2005.

It’s a safe bet Karl Rove, who understands the levers of governance, has a plan working on that, along with reelecting the president.

It’s a plan that not only must provide the strategies for funding and electing the right kind of candidates for Congress, but also must find and recruit such candidates.

The most-powerful of levers work only if grasped, and pulled adroitly, in time. And time is running on the levers of governance in America.