According to available information, the Bush administration’s plans in regard to the Middle East, for the second half of 2003-2004, are as follows:
1) Rebuild Iraq, primarily by restoring crude oil production to the 1989 level or even greater, up to around 6.5 million barrels a day (325 million tons a year),most of which would be exported.
As a result, Iraq would receive a lot of money for solving its most urgent socioeconomic problems while the world crude oil price (NY oil exchange mark) would stabilize between $20 and $25 per barrel.
The presence of U.S and U.K. troops in Iraq makes this plan feasible.
2) "Pacify" Syria. Concretely, this means a considerable list of "no mores" to be accomplished, by the end of 2004, throughout the entire Syrian territory:
3) Solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in accordance with the “Road Map.” The author has some doubts; however, definite progress could be reached even here.
4) In accordance with American-Georgian agreements signed in mid-April, the number of U.S. servicemen in this poor Trans-Caucasian republic will soon increase dramatically, along with a dramatic decrease in the number of Russian servicemen still remaining in this former Soviet republic.
It is not impossible that, by the end of 2004, the U.S and U.K. would have military bases of some kind in Georgia as well as in its eastern neighbor Azerbaijan, facing the Caspian Sea. The leaders of both Trans-Caucasian republics are dreaming about entering NATO and providing permanent military facilities to U.S. troops.
If this occurs, then the U.S. and the West (except for Germany, France and probably Belgium) would establish control over the entire Trans-Caucasian corridor and, most importantly, would get a broad access – via Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan – to the huge hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian Shelf. As a result, the world price of oil could decrease even more.
By the way, the people of Turkey and Azerbaijan are very close ethnic relatives; this greatly facilitates the project.
Finally, the successful accomplishment of all the listed items would create a very uneasy situation for Iranian leaders: They would have to deal with the economic, political and military presence of the U.S. and its close allies in the west (Iraq, Turkey, and forget about military cooperation with Syria), east (Afghanistan), north (Georgia and Azerbaijan) and south (Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea).
This new environment could be beneficial for revolutionary changes inside Iran, the archrival of America and the West.
Evidently, the President Bush intends to take care of Iran and North Korea after his re-election to a second term.
The described plans are really nice, but they could meet very tough resistance, namely, resistance from the Eurasian Alliance – France, Germany, Russia and China constitute its core of it – which is alive, active and still expanding in the following directions:
Let's look at the new message published by China’s official Xinhua news agency on May 13:
"Iranian Oil Minister Zanganeh said: "Iran would give priority to investment in oil and gas projects, especially those in the oil and gas fields shared by Iran and neighboring states (i.e., Iraq). ... Considering the U.S.’s ambitious projects in the region, such priority is a must. … Iran would give priority to European investment in its oil industry by taking advantage of a rift between the United States and Europe over the legality of Iraq's oil exploitation. Iran should try to raise oil production from joint oil fields as soon as possible, considering the ongoing developments in the region."
French oil companies have worked in Iran for many years. Germany also has serious interests here. Billions of euros invested in the Iranian hydrocarbon industry would arouse the local economy and, simultaneously, upgrade Tehran’s political ties with Berlin and Paris.
And no need to repeat the well-known facts about Chinese participation in modernizing Iran’s conventional forces, as well as Russian participation – through multiple open and hidden channels – in establishing Iran’s missile-nuclear potential.
Iran soon could become an integrated part of the Eurasian Alliance and, in this capacity, be a hard nut to crack.
On May 12, the Moscow-based Nezavisimaya gazeta paper reported: "German Chancellor Schroeder came to Malaysia on May 11 for a three-day visit. After this, he will visit Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam.
"Soon (before the end of June) Russian President Putin and French President Chirac will also visit Malaysia. Germany, France and Russia became the major opponents of the U.S. and its allies in the Iraqi War. At the same time, Malay Prime Minister Mahathir was the major opponent of this war in the Muslim world." (end of message)
Indeed, during this war Mahathir (an old opponent of America and a close friend of China) made several tough anti-American statements. The Moscow media (Zavtra weekly paper and others) eagerly reprinted the statements. So, Malaysia is also entering the Eurasian Alliance.
By the way, Malaysia and Iran are actively cooperating in the oil industry. Malaysia’s interest in Russian weapons also should not be ignored.
It should be added that in mid-April, during the visit of Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri to Moscow, Russia and Indonesia concluded an agreement – the first of its kind in several decades – for military-technological cooperation, jointly with a preliminary agreement about cooperation in space technology.
China, in 2000-2002, dramatically expanded its scale of trade with Indonesia. This was accompanied by Chinese low-interest loans and even "small financial gifts" to this country. Moreover, China’s leading oil companies, CNOOC and SINOPEC, are exploiting Indonesian oil and gas fields.
Presently, Russia, Germany and France are following the Chinese lead and entering the Indonesian market. And American positions in this country, which didn't support the Iraq war, are weakening.
Similar trends are taking place in other countries of Southeast Asia, which is becoming an arena of struggle between America and the Eurasian Alliance.
Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics" and the forthcoming "Russian-Chinese Alliance." Visit Dr. Nemets' Web site at http://excelenterprises1.tripod.com.
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