Five Democratic U.S. senators would lose re-election to a Republican opponent if the elections were held today, a new poll from Axios and SurveyMonkey shows.
Sens. Jon Tester of Montana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota all polled less favorably than a Republican opponent, and all represent states won by President Donald Trump in 2016.
Axios notes that Manchin, Tester and McCaskill are the most vulnerable, with approval ratings either under 50 percent or slightly above it. Florida's Bill Nelson, Pennsylvania's Bob Casey and Ohio's Sherrod Brown are safest, judging by Trump's low approval ratings in those states.
The pollsters also note that despite Democrats' apparent disadvantage, several races are still very close.
"North Dakota voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton by a 36 point margin, but a generic Republican candidate would have just a two-point lead over Sen. Heidi Heitkamp," Axios' Alexi McCammond notes.
"Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin's narrow three-point advantage over a generic Republican candidate is underscored by outside conservative groups that have already spent millions of dollars in attack adsagainst her."
"Sen. Casey in Pennsylvania is polling nine points ahead of his GOP challenger Lou Barletta, whom Trump has already publicly endorsed (though the president's approval rating in the state is 46 percent)."
SurveyMonkey and Axios conducted the poll between Feb. 12 and March 5, sampling 17,289 registered voters in 10 states.
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