Tuesday's Republican Senate primary in Texas is turning into a showdown between the GOP establishment and the party's MAGA base, with President Donald Trump holding the potential deciding card.
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, faces a fierce challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Rep. Wesley Hunt also in the mix.
Most analysts expect no candidate to clear 50%, setting up a May 26 runoff between the top two finishers.
The race has become the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with more than $120 million in ad spending and reservations, underscoring its national significance.
Republican leaders in Washington are pouring tens of millions into pro-Cornyn efforts, concerned that nominating Paxton could give Democrats an opening in a state the GOP has dominated for three decades, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
Cornyn, 74, a four-term senator and former member of GOP leadership, is backed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and national Republican groups.
Allies argue he's the strongest general election candidate and the safest bet to keep Texas red in November.
But Paxton, 63, a Trump ally and conservative firebrand, has surged with grassroots voters.
He built his reputation by suing the Biden administration, backing Trump's 2020 election challenge, and leading on issues from abortion to religious liberty.
Despite past legal battles — including a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House that ended in acquittal by the state Senate — Paxton has repeatedly won statewide.
An Emerson College Polling survey showed Paxton leading Cornyn 40% to 36%, with Hunt at 17%, making a runoff likely.
Paxton leads among Election Day voters and 2024 Trump voters, while Cornyn performs best among older Republicans and early voters.
The contest has grown increasingly personal.
A Cornyn-backed group launched an ad attacking Paxton's ethics issues and divorce, labeling him a "fraud."
Paxton allies counter that Republican voters have already looked past those issues, pointing to his past electoral victories.
Axios reported that GOP operatives fear a scenario in which a Paxton nomination is paired with a strong Democrat challenger such as state Rep. James Talarico, whose "progressive Christian" message could appeal to moderates.
Democrats are energized, and early voting suggests strong engagement on their side as well, according to The Texas Tribune.
Still, Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, and many Republicans believe the state remains fundamentally red.
The real question is what kind of Republican primary voters want: a battle-tested conservative insider with decades of experience or a combative MAGA warrior promising to shake up Washington.
Trump, who has praised all three GOP contenders, has declined to endorse. But if the race heads to a runoff in May, his backing could prove decisive.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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