Tags: Trump Administration | swing | voters | 2016 | elections

WSJ: Who Are the 2016 Swing Voters?

By    |   Monday, 25 May 2015 06:06 PM

For a candidate to win the White House in 2016, he or she will need to earn the votes of single white women and know that the votes of Hispanics, young adults and working-class white men are up for grabs more than previously thought, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.

The pollsters who oversee the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll came to this conclusion after looking closely at their polling data from 2014 to determine what makes up the base of each party and who is expected to make up the swing voters in 2016.

According to that analysis, 43 percent of voters identified as Democrats and 38 percent identified as Republicans, making the Democratic base somewhat larger than the Republican base. When further filters were added, it was determined that the Republicans have a core base of about 21 percent, and the Democrats have a core base of about 25 percent of all voters.

The Republican core is made up of tea party supporters and self-identified conservatives, which includes mostly white Southerners, white men in general, rural men, white married women and voters who are more than 65 years of age.

For the Democrats, their core is self-identified liberals and African Americans, including urban voters, college-educated women, suburban women, and voters with graduate degrees.

According to the Journal, both parties should be cautious about taking for granted the loyalties of groups they assume will vote for them.

For example, Democrats may assume that young voters between 18 and 34 years of age are a solid voting bloc for the party, but the Journal concluded that many of them do not identify with either party. There is also a significant portion of Hispanics who aren't firm supporters of Democrats, while they still make up a portion of the Democratic base.

For the Republicans, young men and men who don't have a college degree do not have the same loyalty to the GOP as their older counterparts. And white working-class voters are also up for grabs, even though they have trended Republican for some time.

In addition, young white women and women who don't have a college degree do not strongly identify with either party.

This scenario, the Journal concludes, creates an interesting opportunity for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton to try to capture the vote of those young women, for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio to appeal to Hispanic voters, and for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker to pick up the support of working-class white men.

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For a candidate to win the White House in 2016, he or she will need to earn the votes of single white women and know that the votes of Hispanics, young adults and working-class white men are up for grabs more than previously thought, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.
swing, voters, 2016, elections
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2015-06-25
Monday, 25 May 2015 06:06 PM
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