President Donald Trump has wavered on whether to respond to weekend attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil operations with violence against Iran — though U.S. officials are blaming Tehran for the assaults — and his inconsistency has emboldened the regime, Iranian hard-liners say.
"They are challenging American supremacy and forcing the international community to come to terms with a new relationship with the Islamic Republic," Sanam Vakil, a scholar of Iran and the Persian Gulf at Chatham House, a policy institute in London, told The New York Times. "They come out ahead no matter what happens."
Ali Ansari, a professor of Iranian history at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, told the Times that "Iranian hard-liners consider Trump's inconsistency to be weakness," adding that "their policy of 'maximum resistance' is working."
President Trump has reimposed crippling sanctions against Tehran since pulling out of the 2015 nuclear agreement last year — leading Iran, which considers the sanctions "economic warfare" — to lash out as its only resort, observers said.
Trump's indecision, including calling off airstrikes at the last minute after Iran shot down an American drone in June and the forcing out of hawkish National Security Adviser John Bolton earlier this month, only reinforces that belief among Iranians.
"He is a not a lion, he is a rabbit," Ali Bigdeli, a political analyst in Tehran, told the Times.
"This counts as a big boost for Iran," he added.
Whatever Tehran's role in the Saudi attack, he said, the assault itself "is a showcase of Iran's power and influence."
Iran has denied responsibility for the attack, though the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have.
Still, the Saturday strikes strongly demonstrated that Iran or its surrogates could endanger American allies and global oil supplies, despite punishing sanctions.
"The Saudi air defenses have been proved completely worthless," Michael Knights, a scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told the Times. "They are not going to be ready for Round 2."
The Times noted that some Iranians appeared to have boasted about the Saudi attack.
"Iran has not used all its winning cards yet in the oil war with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia," Mohamad Imani, a military strategist for the Revolutionary Guards, wrote on his Telegram Analytics channel, the Times reports.
In addition, Europe appears to be breaking ranks with the United States by offering relief to Iran to try to salvage the nuclear accord.
France has proposed a $15 billion credit line to coax Iran into complying with the deal — and other European powers apparently are continuing their own diplomatic efforts, the Times reports.
In the Mideast itself, the United Arab Emirates has talked with Iran about maritime security. It also has withdrawn from a Saudi-led coalition opposing the Houthis in Yemen.
Vakil, of London's Chatham House, told the Times that the UAE has "awoken to the fact that they are very exposed."
She said the discussions prove that Tehran was making inroads in its longstanding ambition of dividing the anti-Iran alliance in the region.
"They have already been able to split off the UAE," she told the Times, "so Saudi Arabia is next."
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