Sabato's Crystal Ball: Watch Ohio and New Mexico as Presidential Bellwethers

Ohio and New Mexico are the best states to follow in the quest to determine the nations's next president, says Sabato's Crystal Ball.

The Buckeye State, a major swing state, has correctly picked the winner 28 times, only slightly ahead of New Mexico at 24 (both states have had two wrong picks in their histories but because of the length of statehood for each, New Mexico has a slightly lower win average).

Ohio is the state that most closely mirrors national voting patterns, too, according to Smart Politics blog by the University of Minnesota's Humphrey School of Public Policy.

Other states with the best records, according to Sabato:

Illinois and Nevada, which picked winners 26 times of the last 30 elections

The worst, says Sabato, are the Deep South states like Alabama and Mississippi, which trend below 50 percent.