A number of factors are fueling excitement among Virginia Republicans while creating concern among Democrats that the commonwealth could be shifting back to the GOP.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, shocked many Democrats in November with his election win in a state that many thought was trending blue, The Hill reported.
Youngkin's win and those of down-ballot Republicans have raised questions as to whether the GOP can make further inroads there in the midterms and in 2024, as President Joe Biden faces consistently low approval ratings.
Veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth said, ''Virginia politics is highly nationalized right now.''
Holsworth's statement comes amid concern from down-ballot Democrats who believe Biden could put their congressional districts at risk of being turned red. According to a New York Times-Sienna College survey published Monday, 64% of Democratic respondents said they would prefer a candidate other than Biden run as the party's nominee in 2024.
The survey also reported that 76% of Americans believe the United States is headed in the wrong direction.
''His numbers,'' Holsworth added, ''are so bad and the public opinion about the direction of the country is so low that it's putting into jeopardy two or potentially three Democratic incumbent legislators here in the House.''
The competitive districts Holsworth speaks of are Virginia's 2nd District, represented by Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, and its 7th District, represented by Rep. Abigail Spanberger, also a Democrat. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has called both races toss-ups. This comes as Youngkin won both districts last year, but that was before redistricting.
In addition to Luria's and Spanberger's districts, Virginia Republicans have also placed their sights on Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton's House seat. The National Republican Congressional Committee stated that Wexton's 10th District would be added to their targeted list.
''Luria's in a hard district for Democrats anyway,'' Holsworth continued. ''Spanberger is in a very competitive one, and Wexton is in one that the wave could wash over.''
And while the country faces increased gas prices, a Democratic president with low poll numbers, and a host of other issues, Virginia Republicans hope the wave they saw in 2021 under Youngkin will stretch into 2022.
''If I'm Elaine Luria or Abigail Spanberger, I am very scared running for reelection in Glenn Youngkin's Virginia,'' Youngkin campaign adviser Kristin Davison said.
Allies of Youngkin said he laid a playbook for Republicans in his state by focusing on kitchen-table issues.
''That movement focused on the cost of living, community safety, [and] education has now sparked its way across the country,'' Davison said. ''You look in some of these other states that have governor's races and congressional races and they're all really mimicking the message that the governor and Republicans in Virginia had last year, and I think that it's also working that way in the congressional races in Virginia.''
But Democrats argue that candidates such as Spanberger, Luria and Wexton have survived tough reelection bids in the past and that their own records will shine through.
''Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger, and Jennifer Wexton win tough elections cycle after cycle because they work hard and voters know where their focus is: Good jobs. Fixing infrastructure. A booming economy,'' said Monica Robinson, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
''Meanwhile, Republicans have offered voters nothing but embarrassing headlines and toxic extremism as they root against America's economy and push abortion bans that would throw doctors and women in jail.''
After the Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that overturned Roe v. Wade, which had made abortion legal nationwide, Democrats are eyeing a strategy to make abortion top of mind.
Youngkin says he would pursue a ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy but would concede exceptions in cases of rape, incest, or when a mother's life is in jeopardy.
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