Poll: GOP’s Rehberg Leads Democrat Tester By 3 Points in Montana Senate Race

In Montana’s Senate race, Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg leads Democratic incumbent Jon Tester 48 percent to 45 percent according to a new poll of likely voters from Lee Newspapers.

The survey, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Sept. 17-19, has a 4 percentage point margin of error. It shows that 6 percent of voters are undecided, and 1 percent said they would vote for Libertarian Dan Cox. Rehberg enjoys a 47 percent to 38 percent lead in the important category of independent voters.

“Usually, if an incumbent is trailing, that’s a problem,” Mason-Dixon pollster told the Lee Newspapers in Montana. “(But) this is just too close to call.”

Real Clear Politics rates the race as a toss-up. Rehberg on average has a 1.7 percentage point lead in the three latest polls tallied by Real Clear. The other two surveys were conducted Aug. 20 and Sept. 10-11.

Both Tester and Rehberg have favorability ratings that are modestly higher than their unfavorability ratings – 40 to 36 percent in Tester’s case and 44 to 37 percent in Rehberg’s case.

Tester has a 50 to 43 percent lead among women, while Rehberg benefits from a stronger 53 to 39 percent lead among men.