Many cities in the United States will be subject to some level of depopulation by the end of the century, according to a new report on Nature.com.
The authors predict close to half of the 30,000 cities in America will endure some form of population decline representing 12-23% of their existing population. They caution this will have a major impact on basic infrastructure such as; transit, clean water, electricity, and internet access.
"The way we're planning now is all based on growth, but close to half the cities in the U.S. are depopulating," senior author Sybil Derrible, an urban engineer at the University of Illinois Chicago told Scientific American. "The takeaway is that we need to shift away from growth-based planning, which is going to require an enormous cultural shift in the planning and engineering of cities."
Many traditional "rust belt" cities such as Cleveland, Ohio, Buffalo, New York, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, are likely to experience depopulation of 12-23% by 2100.
"You might see a lot of growth in Texas right now, but if you had looked at Michigan 100 years ago, you probably would have thought that Detroit would be the largest city in the U.S. now," Derrible said.
Regionally, the Northeast and Midwest will most likely be the most heavily affected by depopulation, the authors found. And on a state level, Vermont and West Virginia will be the hardest hit, with more than 80% of cities in each of these two states shrinking. Illinois, Mississippi, Kansas, New Hampshire, and Michigan are predicated to see close to 75% of their cities decline in population.
Following the lockdowns and prolonged school closures of 2020-2022, many blue states saw a decline in population with residents relocating to Florida, Tennessee, and Texas and out of New York, California, and Illinois.
While the study does not delve into the specific causes of the internal U.S. migration, they acknowledged a likely mix of industry decline, lower birth rate and state taxes as factors.
The authors saw the movement as a chance for city planners to encourage ingenuity and not panic. "We should see this not as a problem but as an opportunity to rethink the way we do things," Derrible said. "It's an opportunity to be more creative."
The study comes at a time when world population increased to over 8 billion, up 75 million last year.
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