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How Were Pollsters, Analysts So Far Off in Trump, Clinton Election?

How Were Pollsters, Analysts So Far Off in Trump, Clinton Election?

Hillary Clinton (AP Photo/Phil Long) 

By    |   Wednesday, 09 November 2016 01:58 AM EST

Election night left most pollsters and analysts scratching their heads as votes poured in for Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Hillary Clinton was predicted to easily win the White House by a landslide, but early results showing Trump wins in swing states like North Carolina and Florida stumped many.

"The numbers were just so wrong all around the country," said Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, a Democrat, on ABC News. "I don't know if there was some overconfidence in the Democratic voters, but we definitely have some regrouping to do as a party."

Nate Silver, a popular analyst who runs the FiveThirtyEight website, had Clinton with a 71 percent chance of winning. By 2 a.m. ET, Trump was given a 77 percent chance to win.

"The pollsters have lost a lot of credibility and won't be believed on anything soon," Jonathan Barnett, a Republican National Committeeman from Arkansas who supported Trump, said to Politico. "The way they poll doesn't work anymore."

One person got it right: Allan J. Lichtman, a professor at American University who has correctly predicted 30 years of presidential elections.

"We have never seen someone who is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860," said Lichtman in an Oct. 28 interview with The Washington Post.

Some Clinton supporters pointed to the FBI fiasco last week as a negative sticking point.

"The bad headlines hurt her this past week," said conservative operative Brendan Steinhauser, a staunch Trump critic, to Politico. "Trump had the momentum and the enthusiasm at just the right time."

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Politics
Election night left most pollsters and analysts scratching their heads as votes poured in for Republican nominee Donald Trump.
pollsters, analysts, so, far, off, election
272
2016-58-09
Wednesday, 09 November 2016 01:58 AM
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