President Donald Trump leads presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the state of Georgia by 6½ percentage points in a poll of likely voters conducted in mid-July, contradicting previous surveys.
The poll by the Trafalgar Group, a Georgia-based consulting firm, of 1,023 respondents taken July 15-18 showed Trump with 49.8% support to Biden’s 43.3% with Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen getting 2.4% and 2.2% going to “another party candidate.” Only 2.4% were undecided.
The margin of error was 2.98%.The poll was in contrast to several other surveys, such as a CBS News Battleground Tracker poll released Aug. 2 that showed Biden with a 46%-45% lead in Georgia among likely voters. Additionally, a Monmouth University poll on July 29 had Trump and Biden tied at 47% among registered voters.
On June 29, Public Policy had Biden leading Trump 49%-45% among registered voters.
Demographically, the Trafalgar Group poll results were compiled from 55.6% of women and 44.4% of men; 61.1% white, 33.6% Black, 2.8% Hispanic and 2.1% Asian; and 37% between the ages of 45-64, 22.7% 65 and older, 16% 35-44, 14.8% 25-34 and 9.5% 18-24.
The results did not break down the respondents by political affiliation.
Respondents were taken from each of Georgia’s 14 congressional districts ranging from 5.8% in District 2 to 8.2% in District 11.
Trafalgar was one of the few polls given credit, albeit after-the-fact, for correctly predicting Trump's victory in the 2016 election.
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