California's 2026 gubernatorial race is shaping up to be highly competitive for Democrats, with new polling suggesting the party could fail to place a single candidate in the November general election despite its longtime dominance in the state.
According to a new survey commissioned by the California Democratic Party and conducted by Evitarus, Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are leading the field among 2,000 likely voters.
Hilton stands at 16%, with Bianco at 14%.
Under California's top-two primary system, the two highest vote getters in the June 2 primary advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.
If Hilton, a former Fox News host and author, and Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, finish first and second, Democrats would be excluded from the November gubernatorial ballot.
Among Democrats, Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer polled at 10% each.
The poll underscores a problem Democrats have faced for months: a crowded field.
With eight prominent candidates still in the race and none showing signs of stepping aside, the Democrat Party's vote remains divided heading into the primary.
That dynamic has let Hilton and Bianco maintain their advantage in polling.
A December survey by FM3, commissioned by the California Issues Forum, found Hilton narrowly ahead at 18%, while Bianco and Swalwell were tied at 17%.
The race remains fluid, however, with 24% of likely voters still undecided in the Evitarus poll.
In a Tuesday post on X, Sahil Kapur, senior national political reporter for NBC News, summarized the Democrats' predicament.
"There's a real chance Democrats split the vote between their many candidates for California governor, lock themselves out of the top-two election and gift the victory to Republicans," Kapur wrote. "Would be one of the biggest self-owns in party history."
Meanwhile, the University of Southern California has canceled its planned gubernatorial debate after criticism over its decision to exclude four Democrats of color who say the school discriminated against them.
On social media, former California State Controller Betty Yee said, "We refuse to be overlooked and pushed aside."
"We will fight to be heard in the California governor's race," she wrote Wednesday on X. "Voters deserve it and democracy depends on it."
Nicole Weatherholtz ✉
Nicole Weatherholtz, a Newsmax general assignment reporter covers news, politics, and culture. She is a National Newspaper Association award-winning journalist.
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