Malloch: Why All the Polls are Wrong

The Polls Are All Wrong - Trump Wins 

Did you hear?

Do I need to shout this from the rooftops?

Should I repeat it for effect?

We can now conclusively state that Trump is going to win the 2024 U.S presidential election. He will win decidedly and overwhelmingly.

He will sweep in taking all the battleground states.

He's even likely to win the popular vote.

Rip up all those stupid, unscientific, and contradictory polls, for they are wrong and dubious. Averaging same is even more deceitful and doubles down on foolishness.

In some cases, the polls misstate or overstate supposed findings. Many are just totally biased. Rather, listen to the millions of real voters on social media and you can follow where things are actually going and who will win.

The Pollsters Blew It in 2020. Will They Be Wrong Again in 2024?
 

Survey firms are trying to learn from their mistakes after the biggest polling error in 40 years, but they can’t help themselves and their pseudo-science.

In our latest analysis using "TalkAItive's Favorability Engine," we tracked public sentiment surrounding Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on YouTube from Oct. 18 to 28. By analyzing over 700 videos and more than 1,000,000 comments, we’ve captured a detailed look at how audiences have actually been engaging with and reacting to each figure across diverse conversations online.

Here's what our deep dive revealed.

Top Perceptions – Donald Trump:

Top Perceptions – Kamala Harris:

Of note: Trump has two times more comments/engagement than Harris.

His overall sentiment (NSS) is far more positive than Harris.

TRUMP
NSS: -16.58%
 

HARRIS
NSS: -24.12%

Recurring Themes:

Confidence and Loyalty: Many supporters express unwavering loyalty to Trump, showcasing a shared belief in his potential to lead effectively. This includes sentiments about his popularity among various demographics, such as diverse support for his candidacy.

Critique of Opposition: Many sentiments involve critiques of the Democratic Party and celebrities who oppose Trump. Supporters often view Trump as a bulwark against what they perceive as threats to free speech and traditional values, highlighting a sense of solidarity among his base.

Economic Policies: There is significant discussion around Trump’s economic impact, with supporters claiming that his policies led to prosperity compared to the current administration. Some express nostalgia for his previous leadership, contrasting it with perceived failures of the present government.

Emotional Language:  is prevalent in the sentiments expressed. Supporters often use passionate, personal statements to communicate their feelings towards Trump, emphasizing a deep emotional investment in his success.

Authenticity and Honesty: Many supporters appreciate Trump’s straightforward and unapologetic communication style, contrasting it with typical political rhetoric. This perceived authenticity contributes to their support and belief in his leadership.

Overall:

The sentiments expressed in the provided texts reveal a complex tapestry of support for Donald Trump, marked by optimism, admiration, and a strong emotional connection among his supporters.

These sentiments are often interwoven with critiques of opposing views, showcasing a divide in political opinions. The recurring themes of confidence, loyalty, and patriotism highlight the core values that resonate with Trump’s base, making them passionate advocates for his re-election.

What all this shows is that polling is off by a long shot.

The real world of social media is a much better predictor of electoral results.

So too, is the Polymarket betting market which at this date has Trump winning by an overwhelming — 63 to 38%.

Polling Is Not a Science

Pollsters are not bad people any more than meteorologists and economic forecasters are misguided. What they don’t want you to know however, is that they are far from objective hard scientists dealing with pure facts.

They are trained in a less certain set of social sciences, where the variables are nearly infinite and the assumptions on which your model is based provide the outcomes you want.

Polls are often biased in the questions they ask, in the slant of the analysis, and in their very makeup.

Many are made on super small, nonsensical sample sizes of a thousand people or less, and these are skewed, with people who lean left, are liberal and independent, live on the coasts, and who are willing to answer their endless silly telephone surveys.

• Who takes wired phones calls anyway?
• Who has a wired phone nowadays?

It’s reported that the Trump vote is poorly underrepresented and besides that will no longer participate in such polls as they are suspect. Many right leaning voters will simply not tell anyone who they are voting for because they don’t want to be outted or worse, canceled.

"We are headed for more disaster," said Jon Krosnick, a Stanford University political scientist. Among other problems, he believes many of the newer, online poll surveys are using unproven sampling methods.

If the sample is off, way off, the results are useless or worse.

They can be used to suppress the vote or to derail a candidate or party.

The margin of error in a major national or statewide poll is typically three to four percentage points.  . . .

• What good is that?
• Can you take that to the bank?
• Is guessing or a coin flip all that much better?
• If you were off by that much in your finances, your calendar, your betting, or your relationships how could you live?

You would be fired.

We need to put these useless polls, that we all have come to follow like lemmings every election cycle, where they belong — in the ashbin of history.

Not only are they unreliable and often false but they can shape our decision making in faulty ways. The TV and mainstream print media love them because they own them and have made the polls into a profitable cottage industry.

They sponsor them, have their own slanted pollsters, and believe they are in the know and can "call" elections.

They are not in the know, as we find repeatedly.

Hillary Clinton was up nine points in November of 2016. Do you want more evidence? It abounds. The polls over the past eight years were overwhelmingly off in Democrat’s favor.

That indicates these errors were systematic and not random.

"It's safe to say that we don't have enough Republicans in our samples," said Cliff Zukin, a retired professor of political science at Rutgers University who worked in the polling industry for four decades.

Really?

This is why we should dismiss these inaccurate statistical follies for what they are.

Closely related to the problem of non-response is whether pollsters can adjust for the fact that they have few non-college-graduate or rural respondents — a process known as weighting.

They have not succeeded at this calculation, either.

In 2016, the American Association for Public Opinion Research found that a failure to weight for education led to an underestimation of Trump support.

Duh!

Trump is discounted, generally hated by the leftist pollsters, and therefore they get it wrong every time. The don’t just miscalculate or employ wrong strategies, pollsters also lie and deceive.

When will we, the public, get the message and turn pollsters off realizing that the precise opposite is in fact more likely.

Trump is going to win.

But that is only if there is bona fide election integrity.

Theodore Roosevelt Malloch a former Oxford professor, was to be Trump’s nominee as Ambassador to the European Union. His remarks on BBC about the “EU needing taming like the former Soviet Union” caused a firestorm in Brussels. He is the only American to have been made persona non grata by the European Union for his so-called malevolent views and redefinition of trans Atlanticism. His book, "Trump’s World" was a best seller.