A Democrat will win the presidency – though just barely – in 2016, according to an analysis by Moody's Analytics.
Moody's has correctly forecast every presidential election since 1980, the year it started, The Hill notes.
In 2012, Moody's predicted President Barack Obama's exact number of electoral votes at 332.
The current model says the Democratic nominee will get 270 electoral votes – the exact number needed to win – while the Republican will fall just short of the magic number with 268. Moody's bases its prediction on the economic and political conditions in each state.
Moody's will update it's model every month as the November 2016 general election approaches.
Income growth in the two years prior to an election is the biggest determining factor, The Hill reported, though the incumbent president's approval rating also plays a role.
Swing states get about half of the votes, and those states in the 2016 election will be Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, The Hill noted.
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