Paxton Leads Texas Race Despite $60M Effort to Block Him

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is entering the final stretch of the March 3 Republican U.S. Senate primary as the apparent front-runner, despite more than $60 million spent by GOP-aligned groups to boost Sen. John Cornyn and derail Paxton's bid, Punchbowl News reported.

A University of Houston survey of 550 likely Republican primary voters conducted Jan. 20-31 and released last week found Cornyn trailing Paxton, 38% to 31%. Rep. Wesley Hunt placed third at 17%.

The poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.18%, also indicated Cornyn would lose to Paxton by 11 percentage points in a head-to-head runoff.

Over the past six months, establishment-backed Republicans aired a barrage of television ads highlighting Paxton's impeachment trial, corruption allegations, and divorce.

Yet Paxton has largely avoided responding in kind — and did not begin running his own television ads until very recently.

"I don't want to give their attacks dignity," Paxton said this week following an early voting kickoff event.

"My numbers look as good as they ever have. This is going to be a good race for me," he continued.

"Now, John Cornyn's at risk of finishing third ... He is in serious trouble of not even making a runoff."

Senate Republican leaders have warned for months that Paxton would be a risky nominee in a general election, arguing his hard-line conservatism and legal controversies could alienate moderate and independent voters in November.

Cornyn, by contrast, has touted bipartisan accomplishments on issues such as gun legislation and support for Ukraine.

But those same positions — along with his past skepticism of President Donald Trump — have complicated his standing with primary voters.

As early voting began Tuesday, Cornyn sharpened his attacks on Paxton.

"We will have an Election Day massacre," he said.

"Republicans up and down the ticket will pay the price of having an albatross like our corrupt attorney general hung around their neck."

Despite being significantly outspent, Paxton appears to benefit from a loyal conservative base forged through years of high-profile legal battles.

As Texas' top law enforcement officer, he sued to challenge the 2020 presidential election results, targeted Pfizer over its COVID-19 vaccine, and pursued legal action against doctors providing gender-transitioning services.

He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 but later acquitted by the state Senate.

"Ken Paxton has his base and his base isn't leaving him," said Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, who has endorsed Paxton.

"If a nasty divorce would disqualify you from being a member of Congress, we could not establish a quorum in Washington, D.C."

The contest shifted further in October when Hunt entered the race, increasing the likelihood that no candidate will secure more than 50% and forcing a runoff.

Both Paxton and Cornyn have publicly downplayed Hunt's candidacy, though allied groups have spent money attacking him — a signal that each camp views him as a potential spoiler.

"I guess I'm doing better in the polls than you're letting on," Hunt said at a Dallas event this week.

"Otherwise, you wouldn't be spending the money."

A runoff could favor Paxton, whose energized conservative base is expected to turn out in lower-profile elections that typically draw smaller, more ideologically driven electorates.

Cornyn has acknowledged he would need to expand turnout beyond traditional primary voters to prevail in such a scenario.

He is leaning on endorsements from business and agricultural groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Texas Farm Bureau, which he said collectively represent almost 2.6 million members.

"I'm not under the illusion all of them will show up and vote in the primary," Cornyn said.

"But we're doing things that have never been done before to try to encourage people to turn out."

Paxton has so far avoided directly attacking Senate GOP leadership, including Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota, or the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has criticized Paxton publicly while backing Cornyn.

"I'm not here to criticize any particular person other than the guy that's running: John Cornyn," Paxton said.

"Once I've won, then I intend and hope that they'll be willing and able to work with me."

Paxton has also signaled confidence in a potential general election matchup.

"I've won three statewide races — all of a sudden now I can't win one?"